The authors of Armenia's basic economic document for 2016 have displayed restraint and realism when drafting the budget of 2016, Doctor of Economics, Professor Vardan Bostanjyan said at a press conference on November 23.
He said that given the bitter experience of the past few years, the Government of Armenia has reduced the GDP growth target to 2.2%. "In all aspects, this approach is more cautious than the continuous misleading of the public," the expert said.
The economist noted that there are several factors that can stimulate the economic development of Armenia - expansion of cooperation within the Eurasian Economic Union and the expected agreement on Armenia- EU cooperation. In case of relevant measures, there may also be mutually beneficial cooperation with Iran and China, he said. "Though the "dynamics" of poverty growth will remain next year, 2016 will apparently become a year of positive changes and successful start-ups for Armenia," he said.
To note, the real GDP growth in Armenia will make up 2.2% in 2016, according to the draft state budget of 2016. The GDP deflator index will be 4%, 12-month inflation - 4% (+1.5%), the AMD/USD exchange rate - 483.2 AMD/1USD, budget deficit - 3.5% of GDP. Expenditures will total 1 trillion 373.7 billion AMD, and revenues - 1 trillion 183 billion AMD, with the deficit being 197 bln AMD. Taxes and duties will make up 95.4% of the revenues, and official grants and other revenues will be 2.6% and 2% respectively. Taxes and duties are expected to total 1 trillion 129 billion AMD, the grants within the European Neighborhood Policy are expected to amount to 24 million EUR or 13 billion AMD, and the grants under target programs will amount $35.6 million or 17.2 billion AMD. Other revenues will total 23.8 bln AMD in 2016.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in Jan-Sept 2015, the budget deficit totaled 115.5 bln AMD (16-fold year-over-year growth). As compared to Jan-Sept 2014, the revenues grew by 1.9% to 842.5 bln AMD, while the expenditures increased by 14.8% to 958 bln AMD.