"Let's Live till Monday" - this is the key idea of the budget 2016, Leader of the New Times Party Aram Karapetyan said at a press conference on November 23. He added that over the past few years everything has been built on this principle in Armenia.
Aram Karapetyan doubts that the Armenian Government will be able to ensure 2.2% economic growth. Russian economy experiences recession, which maintains the high volatility of the Russian ruble that affects not only the export but also the transfers to the country. He thinks that one cannot speak of development of Armenian economy on the basis of services only. "If the weather is fine and the yield is high, the agrarian sector may probably secure 2.2% GDP growth. Otherwise, the Government will be back at the bottom of the ladder," said Karapetyan.
He noted that the Central Bank manages to retain the national currency rate by means of interventions, and the rate relatively curbs the price growth on the domestic market, at the same time suppressing the export of the local goods. But Karapetyan thinks it is a temporary solution, and in 2016 Armenia will have to change its economic policy.
In Jan-Oct 2015, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia totaled 1.8 trillion AMD ($3.9 bln), with a 20.4% year-over- year decline. Export dropped over year by 2.2% to 583.7 bln AMD ($1.2 bln) and import fell over year by 26.6% to 1.3 trillion AMD ($2.7 bln). In October alone, the foreign trade turnover amounted to 193.9 bln AMD ($443.5 mln), with export totaling 60.4 bln AMD ($127.8 mln) and import totaling 133.5 bln AMD ($315.7 mln).
In Sept 2015, the amount of non-commercial transfers to individuals in Armenia was $108.1 mln versus $169.7 mln in Sept 2014. By the CBA's data, in Jan-Sept 2015 the amount of private transfers to Armenia was $896.8 mln, with a 40.5% decline versus the same period of 2014. In September 2015, 76% of the money transfers to Armenia (about $82.2 mln) was from Russia. In Jan-Sept 2015, the money transfers from Russia to Armenia amounted to $684.5 mln versus $1.102 bln in Jan-Sept 2014 (down 37.9%). In Jan-Sept 2015, the transfers from Armenia to Russia totaled about $150.3 mln, with the net inflow of transfers from Russia being nearly $534 mln. The World Bank thinks that if the current oil prices are retained, at the yearend of 2015 Russia's GDP will drop by 3.8%. In case of an optimistic scenario (if the prices grow to $68 per barrel), the GDP will fall by 3.1% in 2015, with further 1.3% growth in 2016 and 1.7% growth in 2017.