Friday, April 17 2015 04:44

 In response to ArmInfo's question during an Internet press-conference head of the 'EU foreign policy' and 'politics and institutions' units of CEPS Steven Blockmans has said that Minks II remains the best sanity scenario for the EU - even coupled with the constitutional reform in Ukraiane along with the decentralization which comprises special and steady situation in separatist regions.  

"It is still to be answered whether Vladimir Putin is interested or he will keep racing as an authoritarian leader who is ready for a battle and uses foreign "patriotic" military affairs to keep Russia's high profile", he said. 

In reality, according to a number of experts, in the "hybrid war" against Ukraine (for which the West accuses Russia) Moscow adopted USA's long-used methods. 
Speaking of the post-Minsk I economic and security areas' strategic changes, Blockmans said that the sanctions, coupled with oil price decrease, would bring to Russia's economic recession and its financial reserves' erosion. 

According to the diplomat, given Russia's reserves Putin draws his line on the oil price reflation which will bring the recession to an end. Blockmans has said that leading economists such as former minister of finance Aleksandr Kudrin, former minister of economy German Gref warn about the exacerbation of Russia's political-economic problems 
"The Russians can stoically endure privations; however, against the backdrop of need for modernization the economic isolation might cause instability. Putin should estimate the rates and consider his expenses on the Novorossiya campaign taking into account unexpected consequences", says the diplomat. 

According to his estimations, the non-stop 17-hour-long negotiations which were held on February 11-12 in Minsk could have become a watershed episode. The strategic perspectives appeared in the limelight while the local details of Minsk II were being elaborated. Blockmans believes the strategic context has changed more, than the language of the texts.  
The online interview was organized as part of the Region Research Center's project "Topical Dialogues for Armenian Media."