Sunday, November 23 2014

 It is very important to understand that Armenia is not yet a garrison state of Russia, Richard Giragosian, Director of the Regional Studies Center, said at the Second South Caucasus Security Forum in Tbilisi. 

He believes that fundamentally Armenia may be pro- Russian, but that no longer means that it may be pro-Putin. According to Giragosian, the danger for Armenia may be one more isolation and insignificance.  "Armenia may be trapped behind a new iron curtain Putin wants to erect", he said. 

In his speech mostly aimed at criticizing the Russian policy and the Eurasian choice, the expert ironically pointed out that Russia "is good at losing friends and allies and making enemies". In the contacts with Armenia, "Putin takes Armenia too much for granted". At the same time, the backlash in Armenia is based on the fact that the Russian policy is undermining the sovereignty and independence of Armenia, he said.  

When speaking of the ideas and ideals of the European Union and Russia, Giragosian pointed out that no one has yet defined the Russian ideal. Corruption is hardly to attract anyone, he said. He recalled the more- for-more principle of the EU and suggested a less-for-less principle, i.e. the price to pay for the opportunities.  

Giragosian stressed that many in Armenia want to leave the country because of the economic crisis and lack of democracy. The country has begun a political transition. However, the fact that Armenia gave up the European direction may result in deformation of the reforms.  

In the meantime, the expert emphasized Armenia's significant achievements in the security sector reforms.  He stressed the "Western style" in the reforms, pointing out Armenia's contribution to the peacekeeping operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. This should be empowered, encouraged and inspired, he said.  Giragosian also pointed out some positive trends in Armenian-Turkish normalization, which can geopolitically "shake up the map" in the positive sense. This is the trend that leads to more stability and security in the region. 

As regards the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the expert said that after accession to the Eurasian Economic Union Armenia has become more undefended and both countries' presidents have become hostages of their own policies. Neither of the sides can afford a large-scale conflict but they are making short-term destructive movements. In this context, the only beneficiary is Russia, Giragosian stressed.