Russia is eager to replace Ukraine and Syria as territories "for enforcing the West into love" in Transcaucasia, according to well-known Russian expert Stanislav Belkovsky.
"Russia's allies - as entities that are least protected against its turns and twists - suffer from such behavior of Moscow most of all. It is not yet clear how the Kremlin will succeed in it, because hard power, namely, the army remains its key argument, whereas the international community prefers soft power in resolving conflicts," he says.
The expert thinks that Russia needs a new theater of military actions, first of all, in order to draw the progressive mankind's attention to its potential and relevant role of a great peacemaker. For that purpose, he says, Moscow is promoting a scenario of Armenia's cession of 3-5 districts to Azerbaijan. Afterwards, he thinks, Russia will deploy troops in Karabakh to "guarantee its security". However, Moscow has not managed to it so far and it is exerting strong pressure on Yerevan to force it make territorial concessions. However, Serzh Sargsyan does not trust Moscow and does not hurry to accept the Kremlin scenario on Karabakh.
"A crisis in the scenario of cession of the districts around Karabakh is in the offing, but Moscow thinks it has not yet come. Therefore, armed hostilities may begin at any moment even though Armenia was not going to recognize the NKR's independence. Yerevan just wanted to make Moscow stop insisting on ceding 3-5 districts to Azerbaijan by the NKR and Armenia," he says.