Wednesday, August 24 2016 09:51

ArmInfo. Director of the  Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan anticipates no serious  breakthroughs in the Karabakh peace process so far, since all the  recently intensified meetings and statements at the highest level  pursued one goal - de-escalation of the situation in the conflict  zone. 

Talking to journalists on August 23, Iskandaryan said: "Undoubtedly,  during those meetings pressure was exerted on Azerbaijan, first, and  on Armenia too. Suggestions were made to help defuse tensions in the  conflict zone, but it is early so far to speak about any  breakthroughs in the peace process after the April flare up."

In his words, a breakthrough requires concessions by both the sides  to the conflict, but neither the Armenian nor the Azerbaijani publics  are ready even to speak about concessions. Iskandaryan is sure that  nothing new has been suggested in the peace process since 2007, and  all the talks have been held around the Madrid Principles since then.  

"I am skeptical about both the settlement of the conflict and further  passivity of Azerbaijan on the border. I am skeptical about the  establishment of a system of monitoring on the border too, since  Azerbaijan insistently opposes the idea. Although there is relative  peace in the conflict zone now, I think there will be changes in the  long-term outlook and the situation will change not to better. I  think Azerbaijan's behavior in the future will directly depend on the  oil prices," Iskandaryan said.

In this context, he said, Armenia needs to increase the security  measures, buy more weapons, work with the Command staff - something  the country is doing now. The expert pointed at the recent intensive  meetings between the relevant structures of Armenia and Russia.  

As for the recent statement by NKR Presidet Bako Sahakyan about  possible reasonable concessions, Alexander Iskandaryan said the  entire speech by the Karabakh leader came down to the need for  confidence building measures, introduction of investigation  mechanisms on the border, involvement of NKR into the peace process  and only then an efforts to speak of any concessions.