Thursday, August 11 2016 06:09

On August 8, 9 and 10 we witnessed creation of a Moscow-Tehran-Ankara-Damascus-Baku coalition, Alexey Kolomiets, President of the Kiev-based Center for European and Transatlantic Studies, has told ArmInfo.   

 

"The developments of these days have not become the result of unpredictable or predictable coincidences.  They have become the apotheosis of the heavy geopolitical efforts of the Putin Kremlin and the epic geo- strategic defeat of what has remained from "the West".  The result is the Putin-Rouhani-Erdogan-Assad- Aliyev coalition.  Basically, this is a coalition of wishes rather than a coalition of necessity," he says.    

 

The expert thinks that due to creation of the specified coalition, the balance of forces in the Greater Middle East is cardinally changing in the coalition's favor amid the strategic retreat of the United States and the Persian Gulf countries. As regards Syria, Kolomiets expects the Assad regime to considerably strengthen its positions and gain victory over the rebels and terrorist organizations. 

 

In the Caucasus, he says, the balance of forces is shifting even more cardinally in the Kremlin's favor. Such a shift poses the biggest threat to Armenia and Georgia. In the Caspian region, the domineering of the given coalition will be almost overwhelming. The expert thinks that in the Black Sea region Russia and Turkey will receive huge opportunities of almost overwhelming domineering, which will seriously deteriorate Ukraine's strategic position on its southern flank. The probability that Crimea will become a part of Ukraine again will be minimized.         

 

At the same time, Kolomiets is convinced that creation of a new coalition will enlist serious public support in all its member countries and that the support will apparently be growing.  

 

He thinks that the right moment for creation of the coalition was chosen - amid almost total fiasco of the presidencies of Obama and Poroshenko, following the almost failed summit of NATO in Warsaw, when the southern flank of the Alliance remained almost undefended.  One more factor was the European Union's entry into the phase of deep shocks following the UK referendum.       

 

"Now that the strategic goals and tasks of the given Kremlin-led coalition are clear, a question arises - will there be a politician or a public figure in the democratic and free world to stop this madness? The answer is - not now. But when? When such a leader appears, we will all be living in absolutely different conditions," he says.