Thursday, February 6 2014

 Judging from
the last event in Ukraine, we
have got an impression that the destiny of the Eurasian Union initiated by the
Kremlin and moreover the restoration of Russia
as a superpower is being resolved just at the Kiev streets. Will you please comment?

 

 Although Ukraine plays an important part, the future
destiny of Russia,
first of all, depends on the level of its successfulness in the matter of
resolving its own local problems. I am  confident, that if Russia successfully develops on the
way of social and economic upgrading, it will have enough potential  for effective neutralizing of the potential
threats at the post-soviet area.   If Ukraine transforms into Saakashvili's Georgia and starts playing a part of the
anti-Russian ram at the post-Soviet area, in that case Russia will have numerous new
problems. However, Ukraine
will have more problems not because of intrigues or the disrupting work of the
Kremlin, but because such a course will contradict its national interests and
may launch such destructive processes which will make the most tragic scenarios
possible. The destiny of Ukraine
as an independent state and an entity of international law is being resolved in
Ukraine
at present.

 

How much
possible is the opposition’s victory in Ukraine? What may it lead Ukraine
to?

 

It is very
much possible that the opposition forces will gain a victory in Ukraine, especially because of the unprecedented
external pressure upon Ukraine.
Undoubtedly, in that case they will have sharp confrontation of different
political forces. Moreover, chaos and anarchy will appear in the country. The USA and the European Union will hardly be able
to show such a large scaled aid to the radical supporters of the European way
which will make it possible to settle all the problems of Ukraine as soon
as possible. Although Georgia
is smaller than Ukraine,
nevertheless, even in Georgia
we did not notice successful development and a breakthrough towards the bright
future because of the power change. This became obvious to the Georgian society
which has changed the course and abandoned the anti-Russian policy. If the
"oranges" come to the power in Ukraine
for the second time, the economy will nevertheless force them to establish
normal relations with Russia
sooner or later.

 

 Is the state
and territorial split of Ukraine
possible?

  The state and territorial split of Ukraine is not
ruled out because of several reasons. Such a scenario is not ruled out because
of the mass external interference in the local affairs of Ukraine, the
growing incapability of its state machinery and the edge of local challenges.
However, until there is no large-scale armed conflict of the opposing forces
with a big number of victims, we still hope to preserve Ukraine as a
single state.

 

The
economic prospects of Armenia’s
joining the Customs Union are not strictly clear. We scare the growth of prices
for the goods imported to Armenia.
What changes will it bring to Armenia
in the military and political context?

  

 It is very much possible that one may explain
all the problems of Armenia
by its aspiration to join the Customs Union.  

               Naturally,
prices for some goods may grow and drop for others. The experience of
cooperation of the three states within the Customs Union has given them the
noticeable benefit. In this context, the Armenian government and business
should be able to make use of the new opportunities and gain as much benefit as
possible. But if the leadership of Armenia
cannot resolve the issue and start blaming Russia for that, this will
undoubtedly badly affect the nature of the bilateral relations including in the
military and political sphere.

  

The legislative
alterations in Russia that tighten
the rules of the foreigner’s staying in Russia
and that have stepped in since the beginning of the current year, touch on the
citizens of Armenia
too. Does it find room in the logic of Armenia’s
integration in the Eurasian Union initiated by Moscow?

 Russia is concerned about resolving
of the problem of illegal migrants as soon as possible. By their actions the
illegal migrants break Russian laws  and
create numerous problems for the authorities and ordinary citizens of Russia. The
number of illegal migrants at the territory
of Russia are several
billion. However, the migrants which do not break Russian laws  and legally live at the territory of Russia
will not have additional problems. The movement of citizens and cargo within
the frames of the Customs Union will take place by a simplified regime. This is
one the true benefits which membership in the CU gives.

 

 

What is the
reason of the sabotage attacks and skirmish 
at the Armenia-Azerbaijan and Karabakh-Azerbaijan borders? What does
hinder Russia
, as the key moderator of the Karabakh conflict settlement, to make efforts to
stop these attacks?

 

The
increase of frequency of sabotage attacks, skirmish and growth of the death
cases at the Armenian-Azerbaijani and Karabakh-Azerbaijan borders is a result
of Baku's
consistent policy of pressure upon the Armenian party of the Nagornyy Karabakh
conflict. Of course, I don't mean Azerbaijan's readiness to start a
large-scale war. Increasing of tension is one of the measures directed at
growth of pressure upon Armenia.
The pressure is imposed in various forms: propaganda, diplomacy, military
means. It is a whole complex of measures used by Azerbaijan
for many years with a purpose to force Armenia change its stance regarding
the Karabakh conflict. I  think that one should
not underestimate consistency and insistency of the policy of Azerbaijan's pressure upon Armenia, as
many Western politicians and experts think. If the current military and
political balance of forces does not change thanks to Armenia's membership in CSTO, Azerbaijan will
not change its style. In this context, the tension of the last weeks at the
Karabakh conflict area will decrease, but in some period of time it will again
increase.

 The
purpose of such a policy of pressure upon the authorities and society of Armenia is to
morally exhaust the Armenian party, so that to break the enemy morally and
force him capitulate. This does not suppose settlement of the conflict with a
help of force. Today the true escalation of the conflict up to the large-scale
battle actions is hardly possible. This circumstance determines Moscow's and CSTO's
reaction upon the events. The latter said many times about their principle
position regarding inadmissibility of the Karabakh conflict settlement by means
of force.

 

Today
many superpowers say that they are not pleased with status-quo of Nagornyy
Karabakh. Are there such geo-political configurations which may result in the
final settlement of the Karabakh conflict?

 

 Today there are many geo-political
configurations and scenarios able to radically change the situation in the South Caucasus. The tendency towards complication of the
situation in the South Caucasus is dictated by
the growing instability and the possibility of involving the region in the
conflicts of the Big Middle East. In particular, troops of the USA and its allies will be removed from Afghanistan
in 2014. It is very much possible that this will result in activation of the
radical Islamist forces, including in the South and North
Caucasus. Possible changing of borders of the Big Middle East may
also touch on the South Caucasus states