Tuesday, August 9 2016 10:12

Considering the series of Vladimir Putin's meetings with Ilham Aliyev, Recep Erdogan, and Serzh Sargsyan on August 8,9, and 10, it appears that Armenia will be driven into a format of unpopular decisions soon. Alexey Kolomiets, President of the Kiev-based Center of European and Transatlantic Studies, made such statement to ArmInfo. 

"The prospects of ceding the security belt around Nagorno Karabakh to Azerbaijan are materializing. I think, on August 10, Serzh Sargsyan will bring the fortnight of clashes of the Yerevan Police and Sasna Tsrer group of rioters and the Armenian public's response to territorial concessions as the last argument against the implementation of such scenario," Kolomiets said.

The expert thinks "various plans and papers" are of secondary importance, since the Kremlin is keen to take total control over both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The political analyst draws parallels between the Kremlin's strategy in Ukraine, Moldova and other countries in the post-Soviet area.  As for today's meeting of Putin and Erdogan in Saint Petersburg, Alexey Kolomiets says another Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (German-Soviet Non-aggression Pact) may emerge. 
As for yesterday's meeting of Putin and Aliyev, the analyst thinks Putin needs preliminary arrangements with Azerbaijan so that it could reach a comprehensive solution with Erdogan concerning Nagorno Karabakh, Syria, Kurds and South Stream.  

Kolomiets believes that the recent geopolitical shifts have made it profitable for Recep Erdogan and Vladimir Putin to lift the blockade of Armenia in exchange for territorial concessions to Azerbaijan.   

"Considering Russia's intensified talks with Europe on Moldova over Transnistria - they are pressing the country on capitulation - Putin may settle at once several problems. I think, Ukraine may also become part of the complex solutions in the Kremlin's bargaining with the West," the Ukrainian political analyst said for conclusion. 

Referring to diplomatic sources, Ani Armenian Analytical Center has published the so-called Putin Plan on Karabakh.  The plan is rather close to the stage-by-stage settlement scheme of 1997 and consists of two major packages: 1) the Armenian forces are withdrawn from 5 regions - Aghdam Fizouli, Jebrail, Zangelan, and Kubatlu. 2) Nagorno Karabakh receives a firm intermediate status not implying a return to Azerbaijan's territory or an independent status within the visible future. The referendum for the implementation of the Karabakh people's right to the self- determination, which is stipulated by the Madrid and Kazan documents, is postponed for an indefinite period of time.