Moscow will strive to transform thye frozen conflict in Karabakh into a real war, writes Richard Giragosian, Head of the Center for Regional Studies, in his item.
According to Giragosian, Russia may start increasing and expanding its power and influence in the South Caucasus. In this light, the political scientist believes that Nagorno Karabakh may turn into an attractive instrument. This way may conceal a dangerous aspiration for big, in not risky, dividends. Entering that way, Moscow will seek to transform the frozen conflict in Karabakh into a real war, in which only Russia and its peacekeepers may make a direct intervention, Giragosian writes. He thinks such scenario will recreate the levers of influence Russia had before the August 2008 War against Georgia.
The expert writes that Armenia may occur even in more dangerous situation than Georgia did in 2008. Supporting Russia's stance on Crimea, Yerevan became a hostage to partnership with Moscow. Considering that the West is going to impose more serious sanctions on Russia, Yerevan with the wrong historical position it has taken, may find itself even in deeper isolation, Giragosian writes. According to him, Armenia may occur behind the Iron Curtain that Russian President Vladimir Putin, probably, wants to recreate within the borders of the former Soviet Union.