Monday, February 10 2014

One can get an impression from what is
happening now in Ukraine that the fate of the Kremlin-cherished Eurasian Union
and restoration of Russia as a super power depends on the current developments
on Kyev streets…

 

The
major goal of Putin's team is the Eurasian Union. The Customs Union is a
certain 'shield' and 'preparatory phrase.' It may seem improbable, but one can
hardly find any banner reading "Eurasian Union' in the streets and on the
barricades in Kyev and in Ukraine, generally. They have focused on opposing the
Customs Union.

 

Unfortunately,
the multi-party opposition in Ukraine also lacks political foresight. Meanwhile
the men at the wheel of the Kremlin think that the Russian superpower has
already been restored. What made them think so was annexation of the part of
Georgia. In geopolitics, an aggressor will not stop until it is punished. And
Putin is well aware of that. Therefore, such huge forces have been thrown to
Ukraine.

 

 

How much possible is the opposition’s
victory in Ukraine? What may it lead Ukraine to?

 

Unfortunately,
it is mainly the paradox of the opposition configuration in Ukraine that has
created the ongoing chaos.

The
confidence in the opposition, if not its legitimacy, is diminishing rapidly. It
has become the dominating challenge. 
Therefore, if the current opposition gains power, it will not stay in
power long. New forces and new leaders are emerging in front of our eyes and
Maidan is turning to them. Furthermore, Maidan has become one of the
determining factors for the future of Ukraine. There is an extremely high
probability that a transitional government will be created in Ukraine. However,
he thinks, it will be a government of suicides/kamikadzes that will stay in
power for a few months till elections. The whole question comes down to this:
will it be parliamentary or presidential election.

 

Is the state and territorial split of
Ukraine possible?

 

 

The
Russian strategic factor is the key one among the factors that affect the
territorial integrity of Ukraine. The strategy of the Kremlin is to take under
full control as many territories of Ukraine as possible. The main blow is
directed at Lugansk, Donetsk and Kharkov regions and the Crimea. The congress
of the "Ukrainian front" held in Kharkov is one of the elements of
this strategy. In fact, the assault teams are being legalized.  The Crimea has become active. In particular,
the leadership of the Supreme Council of the Crimea has been preparing
documents, which openly say about the Crimea's annexation by Russia. The
executive power of the Crimea is absolutely ignored.  The reaction of the Crimea Tatars to the
challenges to separate from Ukraine may be easily predicted. The majority of
the Crimea Tatars will never agree to live in Russia and the NATO member -
Turkey will come forward to support them. Such development of events will be
extremely dangerous as in that case everything may be beyond somebody's
control.

 

 

The
West’s response to the developments in Ukraine was tough enough. The U.S.
speaks of sanctions, while EU mulls suspension of relations. How much will all
this affect Ukraine’s relations with the West and its European integration?

 

 

The
West has started acting too late. Ukraine was already shocked by atrophy of the
West. This prompted the Ukrainians the necessity to act independently. There is
no doubt that the USA is the leader of these actions, but not President Obama.
The relations of Ukraine with the West should be fully revised. In particular,
I mean true security guarantees.

The
issue of the so-called European integration should be fully revised. It is
necessary to fully restart the relations with the EU, and the process should be
started after the election to the European Parliament and formation of the new
staff of the European Commission. The strategic documents of relations between
Ukraine and NATO in the new geo-political conditions should be prepared by the
NATO summit in September. The so-called "Ukrainian plan" similar to
the "Marshal's Plan" may play a significant part. The sponsors of
this plan have already come forward the USA, the EU, Japan, Azerbaijan and
Norway.

 

 

Do
you share the opinion that the protests in support of the Association with the
EU were just a reason for a power change in Ukraine?

 

A question arises as to whether the
protests would start but for the association problem? The protests spiraled
into revolution, while revolution gives no importance to secondary issues. The
association agreement is a document of the past. A new agreement is needed.

 

One
can get an impression that Yanukovich will stay in power if another tranche of
the Russian loan is provided. $15 billion is rather a weighty lever of
influence for Moscow on the pre-default Kyev. 
Will these billions really save Ukraine from the financial and economic
crisis?

 

The
situation of the money that come to Ukraine from Moscow is simply wild, as $3
billion simply disappeared. This was a shock, first of all, for Putin.

 

In
general, there are extreme disagreements between Putin and the Russian
government in the matter of granting $15 billion to Ukraine. The credit has
been suspended, as the financial and budgetary situation in Russia is worsening
fast, and to resume crediting is a political suicide. Who to deliver the money
to?  - Yanukovich? The former premier of
Ukraine, Azarov, was a security guarantor, but he ran away from Ukraine to
Austria.  According to the leading
analysts, Ukraine is already beyond control from the point of view of finances,
budget and monetary policy. There are only two steps to default.