It is early to say that the Caucasus will be divided because of the Russia-Turkey confrontation, but there are still such risks, Russian analyst Sergey Markedonov told ArmInfo. "The current unresolved ethnic and political problems amid lack of any breakthrough in the Russian- Turkish relations create potential risks. Not having settled the problems of Syria and Ukraine, Russia will hardly seek to change the current state of affairs in the Caucasus. This is even more unlikely now when the West has actually put up with Russia's influence on Abkhazia and South Ossetia, since it has gained foothold in Georgia," he said. Markedonov believes that a final disturbance of the fragile status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh may have extremely negative consequences for Moscow, affecting the future of the CSTO and EEU, considering that the signatory-states of these organizations have different stands on the military and political support to Armenia. These processes will set the interests of Moscow and Baku against each other - something the sides are not ready for. At the same time, Markedonov believes that the factor of the West strictly limits Turkey's attempts to escalate the situation in Karabakh. Specifically, Ankara's active military involvement into the conflict will face the Armenian lobby in the U.S. Congress and European countries, and France, first. The analyst believes that the shelling and sabotages may spiral into large-scale confrontation involving Russia and Turkey only in case the control over the situation on the Lines of Contact of the conflicting sides is lost. Ankara and Moscow will not push for such scenario, but they may prove hostages to the situation if the conflict flares up again. "That is why the April flare-up was dangerous. The price to pay for "betraying" the strategic ally may be too high for both Moscow and Ankara. The highest risks is that Russia and Turkey may prove unable to prevent the final breaking of the status quo in the Caucasus, which is dangerous to both the countries. Moscow and Ankara will have to act alone, as their allies in the CSTO and NATO have no direct interest in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict," the analyst said.