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ANALYST
JULY 5 - DAY OF CONSTITUTION OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA

STRANGE ROOF OVER MY HEAD

PRESIDENTAL ELECTIONS 2003

STRANGE ROOF OVER MY HEAD

ARMENIA MUST NOT BE DIVIDED INTO RICH CAPITAL AND POOR REGIONS
Interview of UN Resident Coordinator and UNDP Resident Representative Lise Grande to ARMINFO News Agency

INTERVIEW WITH RA NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SPEAKER ARTUR BAGHDASARYAN

I BELIEVE THAT THE INTERESTS OF ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN WILL NOT BE SERVED BY RENEWED CONFLICT

The Secretary General's Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia, Robert F. Simmons, JR., answered the Armenian Arminfo News Agency's questions

Q: How do Armenia-NATO relations develop? How do you estimate military reforms in Armenia? What timeline is required for the Armenian Army to correspond to the Alliance standards?

A: I believe that Armenian-NATO relations are developing quite well. While NATO and Armenia have for several years had a very practical programme of cooperation, this program has expanded significantly in the past two years. In particular, Armenia has decided to undertake an Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) with the Alliance. There is currently a joint effort by the Armenian Government and the NATO International Staff to develop this plan. The plan will lay out in detail the reform objectives and activities of the Armenian government, the timeline envisaged for those reforms, and the activities NATO will undertake to support and assist Armenia in achieving those objectives.

Armenia has elaborated a number of plans aimed at reform of the defence and security sector, and I believe that the IPAP will help to increase the pace of reforms as it will allow us to more clearly track Armenia's goals and objectives and identify where NATO can be of assistance. Armenia's strong participation in international peacekeeping missions has helped it gain valuable experience for its soldiers. One of the most important challenges going forward will be ensuring a modern and transparent planning and budgeting system for the Ministry of Defence, and I think this should be a key part of Armenia's IPAP.

The Armenian Government has expressed a strong desire to increase cooperation with NATO, but has made clear that it does not see NATO membership as its ultimate goal. Thus, Armenia has expressed a desire to make some parts of its forces interoperable with NATO so that it can participate in NATO-led peacekeeping operations.

Q: Experience revealed that simultaneous participation of Armenian and Azerbaijani parts within NATO Partnership program for Peace is rather problematic. How do you intend to solve this problem?

A: It is clear that there have been some difficult situations involving Armenian and Azerbaijani participants at some PfP events. However, there are many other PfP events where participation by both nations has not posed a problem. NATO's position with regard to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and to participation in PfP events remains unchanged. NATO does not take sides in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and does not seek to play a mediating role, a job which falls within the expertise of other international organizations and negotiating mechanisms. At the same time, NATO stands firm by the principle that all PfP activities and programmes must be open to all PfP nations that want to participate. We will continue to uphold this principle in all future PfP activities.

Q: When will Georgia join NATO, and what benefits it will give for the whole region?

A: While NATO Allies have welcomed Georgia's stated intention to join the Alliance, Allies have also pressed Georgia to focus on conducting reforms as a Partner, rather than on speculating on entry into the Alliance. How much political will and perseverance Georgia shows in its reform effort, especially in the defence area, will determine Georgia's future relationship with NATO. With regard to NATO's improving relations with all three countries of the South Caucasus, I strongly believe that NATO's programmes with all three countries help to enhance regional stability through promoting an efficient, transparent, and democratically-controlled security sector.

Q: Taking into account the NATO's interest to the region, do you intend to activate your role in the Karabakh process?

A: As I mentioned above, NATO does not seek to play a role in the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiating process. Other international organizations and mechanisms are better suited to assist the two sides in reaching an agreement. NATO does follow events in the region closely, however, because of the detrimental impact that ongoing tension has on overall security and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region. In their meetings with both Azerbaijani and Armenian officials, NATO Allies and the Secretary General have consistently reaffirmed their strong desire for a peacefully negotiated resolution to the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh and their hope that the two sides will continue to build on the recent momentum achieved in the negotiations.

Q: What is Alliance treatment towards the idea of re-deployment of the part of the Russian bases from Georgia to Armenia? Won't the increasing of military potential of Armenia to upset the balance of power in the region?

A: NATO's position has always been that foreign forces should only be deployed on the territory of a state with the full agreement and permission of that host state. While the deployment of Russian forces in Armenia is the subject of a bilateral treaty between Armenia and Russia, all force levels should be in compliance with the limits set by the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE). Regarding the impact of these deployments on the balance of power in the region, I think that both Armenia and Azerbaijan recognize that further armed conflict would be disastrous to their people and their economies, and so there is an enormous incentive for them to focus on pursuing peaceful conflict resolution.

Q: Does the Alliance plan to set the contacts and form cooperation with the Collective Security Treaty Organization?

A: The Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC), the political body that governs PfP, was briefed last year on CSTO activities by Kazakhstan in its capacity as chairman in office. Russia, in its capacity as current Chairman in Office of CSTO, will also brief NATO on CSTO activities. At this time NATO Allies believe that continuing informal contacts and information sharing are the most fruitful way to proceed, rather than establishing a more formal relationship between the two organizations.

Q: Baku is banking on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline to raise its profile in the world and bolster international support for Azerbaijan in the dispute with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. Taking into account the above-said, what is in your opinion the prospect on Armenian-Azerbaijan mutual relation development?

A: I, along with other international observers, believe that there are grounds for cautious optimism with regard to peaceful resolution of the disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There has been progress made toward resolving the outstanding issues between the two sides in meetings between the two Presidents and Foreign Ministers. As I mentioned before, I think that both Azerbaijan and Armenia recognize that further armed conflict would be disastrous to their people and their economies, and so there is an enormous incentive for them to focus on pursuing peaceful conflict resolution. I sincerely hope that the two sides can build upon the momentum achieved in recent negotiations to begin achieving real benefits from the peaceful resolution of their outstanding issues, including demobilization of some forces and transferring some parts of defence spending to social programs.

Q: According to the Pentagon's analysts Azerbaijan gained a certain pressure on Iran by agreeing to offer Washington to deploy its military contingents in the Azerbaijani soil. Recently Azerbaijan signed a non-aggression pact with Iran, and the analysts believe it was very possible that Iran, in return for this pact, offered Azerbaijan military hardware or aid that could come in handy in renewed conflict with Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. How much it represents the facts? What is your future development perspective?

A: I am not privy to any agreements that Azerbaijan may have with either the United States or Iran. However, just as I believe that the interests of Armenia and Azerbaijan will not be served by renewed conflict, I believe that other regional actors understand that further armed conflict will harm regional stability and harm their interests. All regional actors have an interest in seeing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolved peacefully, because the current situation is greatly hindering the economic, social, and democratic development of the region

Oksana Musaelyan, ARMINFO, 27 September, 2005

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