Alexander Manasyan: Official Baku is an instrument in the big geopolitical game of USA

ArmInfo’s interview with Head of the Political Research Academy, correspondent-member of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia Alexander Manasyan

• by Marianna Mkrtchyan

• Saturday, June 16, 17:27

Mr. Manasyan, there seem to be more hidden motives in the Azerbaijani subversive actions on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border than just desire of Aliyev’s regime to destabilize the situation around Karabakh conflict… 

The last events on the Armenian-Azeri border can be interpreted as Azerbaijan's message to the world community and the OSCE Minsk Group that it will not accept political or legal solutions to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and wants the problem to be solved by means of war. That's exactly why the Azeris did it during the visit of the US Secretary of State to the region. The second possibility is that it was not Baku's initiative. It may have been the initiative of the United States, which is deliberately escalating the situation in the region for neutralizing Iran. The geo-political plans of the United States the role of Iran is not subject to drastic changes, while Azerbaijan is

supposed to play the role of an instrument in this game.

May this big game lead to another aggression by Azerbaijan against the Armenian people?

Even in case of the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, no blitzkrieg is expected, actually, not only because of the geographical location of Armenia but  also because of placement of the world forces and interests in our region.  It will be very hard for Azerbaijani tanks to run Armenian mountain paths. So this weapon will not act. As for the air attack, Armenia is protected with rather strong air defense equipment. At present I think that Azerbaijan will not dare to attack Armenia. It is very much possible that by such actions Baku is trying to impose pressure both upon the world community and domestic political arena of the country. Aliyev is trying to come forward like a soldier-president ready to "liberate lands", and in such a way he is trying to make Azerbaijani people not to notice his own crimes. Actually, all this is directed to remaining at the position of the president. Since 1991 no political force of Armenia has been able to make an adequate picture of the core of the conflict. The core and the reasons of the Karabakh conflict are distorted. Many people in the world think that Azerbaijan is a victim of the Armenian aggression, and the Armenians has come forward like an aggressor that occupied Azerbaijani lands. Though actually everything is visa versa. Moreover, we can give judicial and legal grounding to the fact that Nagornyy Karabakh is historical territory of Armenia.

Is there any connection between the recent arms procurement by Azerbaijan from Israel and the current tension on the line of contact?

Even large military contracts are unable to play a decisive role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenia has enough military resources, and even if it runs short of weaponry, weapons may be provided by  the Collective Security Treaty Organization and Europe, which are not interested in a new war.   European nations do not want the war to resume as they buy oil and gas in the Caucasus, while those who do not depend on fuel may wish a new conflict with a view to change the balance of dominating forces in the region.

What do you think of the continuing rapprochement of Azerbaijan and Israel amid deteriorating relations of Turkey and Israel?

I am not surprised to see Azerbaijan and Israel improving their relations. In Israel there are lots of people who lived in Baku in the Soviet times and have old ties with the Azeri political elite. The arms Israel is selling to Azerbaijan may be used against Iran, which is good for Turkey. Still it is hard to say how things will develop in the next decade - for political preferences change very quickly. 

As for contradictions between Azerbaijan and Iran, natural and unnatural, South Caucasus before joining Russia was part of Persia and most residents there consider themselves Persians. In addition, anti-Iranian sentiments are dictated by Ankara, though Azerbaijan’s population do not support either the pro-Turkish orientation of the ruling regime in Baku and or a military conflict in Iran. Therefore, there is threat of conflicts inside Azerbaijan in case of war against Iran.