Arminfo.info



 Thursday, July 31 2014

Marianna Mkrtchyan

Georgi Kolarov: The second Nagorno-Karabakh war is inevitable

Georgi Kolarov: The second Nagorno-Karabakh war is inevitable

 


Mr. Kolarov, do you think it is possible
to draw a parallel between the past Bulgaria-Macedonia relations and the
current Armenia-Artsakh ones?   


 


On 2 August 1903, in the territory
of present-day Macedonia and Northwestern Greece the Bulgarians’ biggest
anti-Ottoman rebellion broke out. It lasted for 3 months and ended up in
failure due to the prevalence of the Turkish army. Part of Bulgaria, which was
already free at that time, was unable to help the rebels. This factor, as well
as the following Balkan wars, WW I and WW II resulted in separation of these
territories from Bulgaria. Later, for a number of reasons the local elite in
Macedonia started developing national consciousness on anti-Bulgarian basis
with the support of Royal Yugoslavia and Greece.


 


It came to the point that the local
Communist regime started imposing anti-Bulgarian consciousness on the local
Bulgarians. Moreover, Macedonia claimed that the rebellion against the Ottoman
Empire was committed by Macedonians and that Bulgarians had nothing to do with
that. I think if Armenia’s leadership regularly neglects the interests of
Karabakh people, one day people in Stepanakert may say, “We are not Armenians
and we have nothing in common with Armenians and we won the Karabakh war, not
Armenians. This is what is being observed in Macedonia now. On the threshold of
2 August 2014, Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras declared that the
Macedonian language is a dialect of the Bulgarian language and that the nation
of the Macedonians and their language were invented by the Communists in the
1930s.


 


Let’s talk about the parallels.


 


If the Karabakh Armenians have not
yet separated from the rest of Armenians, a big role here belongs to the
presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, who came to power as victors of
the Karabakh war. But I can assure you that if Levon Ter-Petrosyan had remained
at power, the process of separation would have started long ago. I have been to
Karabakh twice. I paid my second visit there as an observer at the presidential
election in late July 2012. I can say that unlike the Armenians of Yerevan, the
Armenians of Karabakh have no strong pro-Western sentiments. As soon as Armenia
takes the course for the West, separatist sentiments will arise in Karabakh.
The residents of Artsakh will cease taking into account the interests of
Armenians worldwide and will be geared to Russia. 


 


In other words, do you observe
pro-Russian sentiments in Karabakh? 
 


 


Yes, I do. They even speak Russian
better than the residents of Yerevan. I have recently attended a CSTO event and
I was very much surprised at the fact that the Defense Ministry representatives
spoke Russian worse than English. It was obvious that they attended training
courses in the United States or in Great Britain or in any other
English-speaking country. This already demonstrates the replacement of the
value system. I think this fact cannot help causing certain concerns for the
future of Armenia, because I consider Armenia’s eventual commitment to the West
and the breach of relations with Russia to be disastrous. Armenia may
experience the same developments as in Ukraine, because most of the Armenian
people will put up with the breach of relations with Russia under no
circumstances.


 


Can one expect resumption of
military actions in the Karabakh conflict zone in the near future given the
frequent ceasefire violations?    


 


I
think the second Nagorno-Karabakh war is inevitable. Armenia should get ready
for the second war at least in order to avoid the third one. Azerbaijan is
actively arming itself. If there is a gun hanging on the wall, it must fire one
day. If Azerbaijan is actively buying arms, it will use them sooner or later.
Rich as it is, Azerbaijan is full of social-economic and religious
contradictions. The conflict between Islamist and pro-Western moods may result
in political unrest and collapse. So, the best way for the Azeri authorities to
avoid this is to provoke a new war in Nagorno-Karabakh. On the other hand,
Azerbaijan will not be able to win this war. 
But under current circumstances, even a small victory and a
compromise-based peace will be enough for the Azeri authorities as they will
convince their people that it was a big win. So, the Armenian army must be
ready for military provocations and must do its best to win the new war so as
avoid any concessions during subsequent peace talks.


 


How would you explain the escalating
tension on the Armenian-Azeri border?  


 


The
key reason why more incidents are being recorded on the contact line is growing
tension inside Azerbaijan. The same is going on in Ukraine, where local
authorities are availing themselves of ongoing war to rob their people.


 


How would you assess the fact that
Azerbaijan initiates the provocations but the OSCE Minsk Group’s statements are
addressed to both parties?     


 


The representatives of all the three
co-chair countries of the OSCE Minsk Group speak and behave like professional
diplomats. I suppose it is no secret that the public opinion of these three
superpowers is in Armenians’ favor. These are the countries where Armenians
found refuge after the genocide. One can also understand Baku’s regular
protests against the OSCE Minsk Group’s decision and the Co-Chairs’ behavior.
Baku has clever people who realize that these three mediators represent the
countries whose major part of the society feels sympathy for the Armenians. I
think Armenia has no reasons to worry about the OSCE Minsk Group’s steps.


 


What can you say about the
Armenian-Turkish relations?


 


I
think that Ankara is concerned about opening of the Armenian-Turkish border not
less than Yerevan, as it will become a push for development of the eastern
regions of this country. This will become a push for development of the eastern
regions of Turkey where Kurds have been chiefly living in poverty. As a result
of complex social conditions in these regions of Turkey, emigration is growing
and these territories clear. As Turks scare the Armenian revenge and
devastation of the territories at the border to Armenia is not beneficial to
them, and social and economic development of these regions plays into Ankara's hands.
Taking all this into consideration, Turkey will soon open the border to
Armenia. At the same time, one should take into account the growing
disagreement between the prime minister and the future president of Turkey
Recep Erdogan and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, as the latter still has
been vibrating between Erdogan and the Suni priest Fethullah Gulen, which has
been ruling the Turkish foreign policy much. 
In such a situation, I think that 
especially on the threshold of the 100th anniversary of the Armenian
genocide, opening of the border will promote mellowing of the situation and
raising of Turkey's rating in the eyes of the world community.


 


Does it mean that you do not rule
out opening of the Armenian-Turkish border till 24 April 2015?  


 


Yes, it does. I think that the
border will be opened even earlier..


 


What is the reason of Erdogan’s
statement made on 23 April 2014 in which he expressed condolences to successors
of the victims of the tragedy at the beginning of the 20th century?


 


There
is such a tendency in Erdogan's policy. This is a mellow approach in order not
to disturb Turkish nationalists, on the one hand, and on the other hand, to
start a fluent approach to the dialogue with Armenians and the world community.
Erdogan is not fool and understands that if he goes on worsening of relations
with Armenia in general, and with the Armenian Diaspora in particular, in that
case, he will not be able to lot upon effective relations either with Russia or
France and the USA  or other superpowers,
where the influential Armenian Diaspora lives. Even during the Karabakh war,
Russia and the USA were supporting 
Armenia. Yes, Russia may arm Azerbaijan, but if Aliyev has got so much
money, he will find the way to purchase weapon, if not from Russia, but from
Ukraine, Belarus and other CIS countries.  


 


Is recognition of the Armenian
Genocide by Turkey possible in the near future?


 


No, it is not.
Turkey will not recognize the Armenian genocide on the threshold of its 100th
anniversary, but certain revision of the Turkish position regarding the events
at the beginning of the 20th century will take place by the 24th April. Ankara
will not be as radical as today. I think that the future president of Turkey
Erdogan will not accept Armenian president's invitation to visit Yerevan on 24
April 2015. If he makes such a step, he will come across big problems in his
country from the side of Islamists and nationalists. I think that it is still
early to make such a step. Erdogan cannot let himself make such a step because
of the local reasons.


 

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     

Official voting results of Russian citizens in Armenia have been  announcedOfficial voting results of Russian citizens in Armenia have been  announced
With With "demarcation" going at this rate it will reach Yerevan:  Pashinyan points out to Tavush residents the need to quickly transfer  4 villages to Azerbaijan
Pashinyan meets with Tavush residents as promised earlier: Details of  meeting have not yet been providedPashinyan meets with Tavush residents as promised earlier: Details of  meeting have not yet been provided
Stoltenberg: Azerbaijani-Turkish armed forces close cooperation  strengthens Azerbaijan-NATO relationsStoltenberg: Azerbaijani-Turkish armed forces close cooperation  strengthens Azerbaijan-NATO relations
Armenia and Azerbaijan now have opportunity to achieve enduring peace  after years of conflict - NATO Sec GenArmenia and Azerbaijan now have opportunity to achieve enduring peace  after years of conflict - NATO Sec Gen
Armenian government`s intention to waive the claims filed against  Azerbaijan in international courts to cause irreparable damage to  Armenian people - human rights activists Armenian government`s intention to waive the claims filed against  Azerbaijan in international courts to cause irreparable damage to  Armenian people - human rights activists 
Ardshinbank cardholders can now enjoy a 10% cashback!Ardshinbank cardholders can now enjoy a 10% cashback!
Higher school buildings to be managed by international company -  premierHigher school buildings to be managed by international company -  premier
Armenian CEC rep observe U.S. primaries Armenian CEC rep observe U.S. primaries 
Contemporary Indian writer Arjun Krishna Lal`s book released in  Armenian Contemporary Indian writer Arjun Krishna Lal`s book released in  Armenian 
U.S reaffirms commitment to durable and dignified peace between  Azerbaijan and Armenia - Joe Biden U.S reaffirms commitment to durable and dignified peace between  Azerbaijan and Armenia - Joe Biden 
Deepening Armenian-Indian relations among Armenia`s foreign policy  priorities Deepening Armenian-Indian relations among Armenia`s foreign policy  priorities 
Moscow Moscow "testing" its relations with Yerevan
Armenia`s possible withdrawal from CSTO should take country`s real  needs into account - Russian foreign office rep Armenia`s possible withdrawal from CSTO should take country`s real  needs into account - Russian foreign office rep 
Region closer to peace than ever before - president of Azerbaijan Region closer to peace than ever before - president of Azerbaijan 
Three Sad Stories about FraudstersThree Sad Stories about Fraudsters
Armenia`s Deputy FM admits setback in Armenia-EU visa requirement  simplification Armenia`s Deputy FM admits setback in Armenia-EU visa requirement  simplification 
Opposition is denied access to draft peace treaty with Azerbaijan -  MPOpposition is denied access to draft peace treaty with Azerbaijan -  MP
Stoltenberg: NATO sought to support stronger partnerships with both  Armenia, Azerbaijan in 2023Stoltenberg: NATO sought to support stronger partnerships with both  Armenia, Azerbaijan in 2023
Peter Stano: Armenia may apply to join EUPeter Stano: Armenia may apply to join EU
Azerbaijanis destroy13th-century Armenian khachkar in village of  Tsar, Shaumyan region of occupied ArtsakhAzerbaijanis destroy13th-century Armenian khachkar in village of  Tsar, Shaumyan region of occupied Artsakh
Zatulin: Strengthening Armenian-EU relations to require  revision of  Armenia`s membership in EAEUZatulin: Strengthening Armenian-EU relations to require  revision of  Armenia`s membership in EAEU
Basic principles of settling Armenian-Azerbaijani relations remain  unchanged - MFABasic principles of settling Armenian-Azerbaijani relations remain  unchanged - MFA
Oppositionist: Armenian government has failed its program, including  through CSTOOppositionist: Armenian government has failed its program, including  through CSTO
Foreign Minister: We are not negotiating surrender of villages in  Tavush region to AzerbaijanForeign Minister: We are not negotiating surrender of villages in  Tavush region to Azerbaijan
Foreign office: Today, mutual understanding between Yerevan and Baku  regarding mutual recognition of territorial integrity is higher than  month agoForeign office: Today, mutual understanding between Yerevan and Baku  regarding mutual recognition of territorial integrity is higher than  month ago
Statue honoring Soghomon Tehlirian unveiled in MarseilleStatue honoring Soghomon Tehlirian unveiled in Marseille
Armenian Revolutionary Federation holds protest in front of Armenian  Consulate in Los AngelesArmenian Revolutionary Federation holds protest in front of Armenian  Consulate in Los Angeles
Azerbaijan-Iran conflict predestined - Stepan Danielyan Azerbaijan-Iran conflict predestined - Stepan Danielyan 
Turkmenistan and Austria aim to expand the boundaries of bilateral cooperationTurkmenistan and Austria aim to expand the boundaries of bilateral cooperation
Senior Russian diplomat discusses Ukraine, South Caucasus at talks in  AnkaraSenior Russian diplomat discusses Ukraine, South Caucasus at talks in  Ankara
Armenian, Artsakh political forces issue joint statement  Armenian, Artsakh political forces issue joint statement
Our main goal is to return to Artsakh soil - Andrei SergeenkoOur main goal is to return to Artsakh soil - Andrei Sergeenko
AAA disappointed with financial aid to Armenia next year AAA disappointed with financial aid to Armenia next year 
Armenia committed to work actively on implementation of provisions of  EU resolution - Armenia NA speaker Armenia committed to work actively on implementation of provisions of  EU resolution - Armenia NA speaker 
European Parliament approves resolution on closer ties between the EU and ArmeniaEuropean Parliament approves resolution on closer ties between the EU and Armenia
Armenia intends to bring its domestic legislation to conformity with  ICC requirementsArmenia intends to bring its domestic legislation to conformity with  ICC requirements
Artsakh information Center calls on mass media to refrain from unfounded accusations against Artsakh authoritiesArtsakh information Center calls on mass media to refrain from unfounded accusations against Artsakh authorities
4 villages in Tavush are not included in Armenia`s administrative  borders  - minister4 villages in Tavush are not included in Armenia`s administrative  borders  - minister
Defense Minister: Defense Minister: "Nobody gave the order not to open fire"
Ararat Mirzoyan, Louis Bono discuss current security situation in  South Caucasus Ararat Mirzoyan, Louis Bono discuss current security situation in  South Caucasus 
Kremlin: Moscow to clarify with Armenian side situation around  Yerevan`s withdrawal from CSTO Kremlin: Moscow to clarify with Armenian side situation around  Yerevan`s withdrawal from CSTO 
Armenia hosting Francophonie Days Armenia hosting Francophonie Days 
Armenia`s authorities realizing Aliyev`s agenda by starting border  delimitation from Tavush - Mane Tandilyan Armenia`s authorities realizing Aliyev`s agenda by starting border  delimitation from Tavush - Mane Tandilyan 
South Caucasus stability one of Turkiye`s prioritiesSouth Caucasus stability one of Turkiye`s priorities
Tragic events in Nagorno Karabakh made France develop security  cooperation with Armenia - ambassador Tragic events in Nagorno Karabakh made France develop security  cooperation with Armenia - ambassador 
EU applies anti-Russian EU applies anti-Russian "geopolitical optic" everywhere - Russian  official 
Deployment of the EU Civilian Mission in Armenia aimed at  establishing lasting peace and ensuring stability in region - Paruyr  HovhannisyanDeployment of the EU Civilian Mission in Armenia aimed at  establishing lasting peace and ensuring stability in region - Paruyr  Hovhannisyan
Crossroads of Peace project divorced from reality Crossroads of Peace project divorced from reality 
PM: Armenian border guards wto perform their duties at Zvartnots  airport from August 1PM: Armenian border guards wto perform their duties at Zvartnots  airport from August 1
Pashinyan on Arshak Karapetyan`s dismissal reason and his special  relations with MoscowPashinyan on Arshak Karapetyan`s dismissal reason and his special  relations with Moscow
Premier: Yerevan sees and feels Turkiye`s presence in  Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process Premier: Yerevan sees and feels Turkiye`s presence in  Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process 
At meeting with French Ambassador, head of Armenia faction, notes  importance of sanctioning Azerbaijan for atrocities in Artsakh At meeting with French Ambassador, head of Armenia faction, notes  importance of sanctioning Azerbaijan for atrocities in Artsakh 
Pashinyan: External forces also provoked main force organizing ethnic  cleansing in KarabakhPashinyan: External forces also provoked main force organizing ethnic  cleansing in Karabakh
Our political force will follow path of institutional solutions -  ex-mayor of Yerevan Our political force will follow path of institutional solutions -  ex-mayor of Yerevan 
Yerevan is ready to expand its agenda with BrusselsYerevan is ready to expand its agenda with Brussels
Soviet Encyclopedia `to help` Pashinyan; Armenia`s territory is less  than 29,800 sq. km.Soviet Encyclopedia `to help` Pashinyan; Armenia`s territory is less  than 29,800 sq. km.
Yerevan is working to return prisoners from Baku, although at times  it looks like `Sisyphean task` - PashinyanYerevan is working to return prisoners from Baku, although at times  it looks like `Sisyphean task` - Pashinyan
If Armenia`s borders are If Armenia`s borders are "red line" for CSTO, let them demonstrate it  - Pashinyan
Pashinyan specifies timeframe of Armenia`s new Constitution  referendum Pashinyan specifies timeframe of Armenia`s new Constitution  referendum