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Interview with Director of the Institute of Political Studies of the Black Sea and Caspian region Vladimir Zakharov
by David Stepanyan
U.S. Secretary of Hillary Clinton is visiting Armenia on June 4. Let’s talk of the goals of her visit in the context of the situation in Syria and Iran.
The visit of the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the South Caucasus is a significant event. She is not traveling to the region just on a fact-finding visit. She is to study out serious issues that cannot even be put in charge of envoys to avoid publicity. WikiLeaks cables showed that there is noting in the world that remains in secrecy forever. Secrets come to light ahead of time spoiling many arrangements. That is why Madam Clinton's talks will be vis-a-vis. Even if one of the presidents is not good at English, the translator will be from the USA. Afterwards mass media will be provided with quite different information on the given negotiations. Fairy tales will occur in the press while the topic of the negotiations will remain a deep secret. One of the key topics on agenda of Clinton's meetings with the three countries' presidents will be the stance of the three countries in the region on the upcoming war of the USA against Iran, though it was reported beforehand that the given issue may be discussed slightly. There are many analysts in Russia and Armenia who cast doubt on possibility of such war. However, they are either incompetent people or those who work for foreign forces against Iran and Russia, those who openly disseminate lie.
The USA has already set the approximate date of launching aggression. The USA will probably use others, at least Israel, to do that. Provocation with murder of civilians in Khula by Saudi onhangers of America, the following breach of diplomatic relations with the key countries in the West before studying out the actual situation, all this shows that attack on Syria is finally decided. It will be made by a coalition of Western countries like it happened in Lybia, not just by one country. Liquidation Asad's 'regime' is extremely necessary for the West in order to avoid an adequate Iranian response by means of Syria in case Israel launches war against Iran. Asad has Russian and Iranian weapons, which will allow making a severe blow on Israel and it is not a secret. Therefore, the USA that uses Israel against Iran has suddenly began to worry. Chilton has already declared in Oslo that she is concerned over reports on regular delivery of Russian weapons to Syria. In this light, Clinton will, undoubtedly, discuss Armenia's attitude towards the Syrian problem with President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan. Cooperation of Russia and Armenia, and first of all, in the military sphere, will be the key topic of the meeting. Madam Clinton is very likely to demand liquidation of the Russian military base in Gyumri.
What about the visit to Georgia and Azerbaijan?
Clinton will probably express desire to meet with the opposition in Georgia and Azerbaijan. It is not known yet if she will be allowed to do that or not. They may organize meetings with a group of oppositionists with certain pro-governmental persons among them. All this is, however, a scenario behind the scenes. Such steps are taken to keep USA's image in the fight for false values which they call 'democratic.'
War of the West against Iran is what the meetings with the leaders will be focused on. Unlike Mikhail Sahakashvili and even Ilham Aliyev, who has already taken the U.S. path and will soon declare that Azerbaijan is ready to join NATO, USA has still certain problems with Armenia. I do not even suppose what arguments Madam Clinton will use to persuade or even demand Serzh Sargsyan to support the USA in the aggression against Iran, but I think that she has prepared quite tangible facts. Armenia's neutral stance will not be in favor of America. In the given situation the responsibility will fully lay on your president. I will not answer on behalf of Mr. Sargsyan if he will manage to insist on neutrality in the upcoming nightmare, this is how I imagine the future war that will become a terrible disaster for the entire world, and not only the South Caucasus. Anyway, the upcoming meeting will be uneasy for him.
Do you think that the Karabakh conflict may turn into a serious argument in the hands of the USA?
It has been reported already that Clinton will touch upon that issue. She may persuade Serzh Sargsyan to go on some concessions. I hope will not do that, however. Karabakh, specifically the territory of Karabakh, is extremely necessary for the USA in the upcoming war against Iran. After Ahmadinejad’s decisive statements addressed to the leaderships of Georgia and Azerbaijan in 2010 and repeatedly made afterwards, the USA has decided to set aside Azerbaijan. Ahmadinejad warned Georgia and Azerbaijan that they will receive an adequate blow if a single military aircraft flies over Iran. There is already significant number of U.S. militaries in Azerbaijan and a huge quantity of arms. I’d risk suppose the following scenario of developments: if Baku unleashes large-scale war against Karabakh, it will mean that war against Iran will start soon after. USA will deploy the so-called ‘peacemakers’ in Karabakh without any mandate, especially that they have already been concentrated in Georgia and Azerbaijan. It will take a couple of hours to deploy them in Karabakh. It will be done under the pretext of stopping the war. However, the USA needs the “peacemakers” to deploy its military contingents on the territory of Nagorno Karabakh Republic, the closest neighbor to Iran.
That is, the negotiations of the U.S. Secretary of State will be around Iran…
Yes, of course. I am surprised whether the USA does not understand that the war will involve not only the neighbor states. In America they think that they are too far from the place of future tragic incidents, but Iran will get them, anyway. It is strange that the neighbor states hope they will avoid war. Neither Azerbaijan nor Georgia will avoid it. Internet is flooded with statements by Western politicians who alarm of the necessity of punishing the obstinate country Iran. Georgia does not conceal that it has opened a big number of hospitals in its territory for future wounded soldiers of USA. The runway under pretence of Tbilisi-Kutaisi autobahn with the necessary infrastructures was put into service in late 2011. The situation is getting out of control. Russia hardly manages to insist on peaceful resolution of the Iranian conflict. A well-organized hysteria may lead to a hasty attempt to attack Iran at any moment, which will result in destabilization in a large region that will affect Armenia, Russia and many other countries.
Syria, Iran, what is Russia’s place in the USA’s conception?
America has been recently creating discontent with the Russia, our government, president, in the neighbor-countries. The situation around Gabala station is the bright example of the USA’s “work”. How could friendly Azerbaijan and Ilham Aliyev make such anti-Russian demands for extension of the treaty on Gabala. If there is anyone who does not remember how all the situation began, I will remind. First, a graduated student from MGIMO, certain Leyla Aliyeva, declared boldly that Gabala damages the environment in the region. It is evident that without permit of her father, the prudent daughter would never made such statement. This is how the Azerbaijani leadership works. They no longer respect Russia. Our leadership should revise its relations with Azerbaijan and will make sure that Azerbaijan is not a friend but a snake in the grass.
The United States actively create Russia’s
negative image by means of the biased NGOs, mass Media and certain public and
political figures. USA has
already led Georgia out of Russia’s
is getting out of it. It is Armenia’s
is doing all this to implement its project “Big Caucasus” as soon as possible.
Although it is an old idea that originated yet under George Bush-junior, its
major goal is to strengthen the positions in the region and promote USA’s
interests, which is being successfully enforced now.