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Regional

Analyst: Against the background of Ukraine, Moscow does not need extra headache in Karabakh

  • by David Stepanyan

  • Wednesday, September 3, 20:37

Against the background of Ukraine, Moscow does not need extra headache in Karabakh, the known Russian analyst, Sergey Markedonov, told ArmInfo correspondent. 

 

"Just for this reason, since May 1994, after the biggest escalation of violence and new victims at the line of contact, President Putin has initiated the meeting with his counterparts from Armenia and Azerbaijan in Sochi. In other words, the deep issues of the Karabakh settlement were not discussed in Sochi. They only made an arrangement to stop escalation of violence and to prevent new victims", - Markedonov said.

 

The analyst emphasized that not opposing to other members of the OSCE Minsk Group, Moscow hinted at its special interest informally taking a status of a mediator in the Karabakh settlement. This is not surprising, if we take into consideration the fact that escalation of the Karabakh conflict will raise burning questions beyond the frames of relationship between Yerevan and Baku, for instance, about expediency and effectiveness of the CSTO and Eurasian integration.

 

Markedonov thinks that the summer escalation of the situation around Karabakh is a test for the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair states to be able to coordinate their actions. He said that the hints of the West addressed to Baku from time to time about priority of the energy and geo-political pluralism and the integration programmes at the CIS territory without participation of Russia, may lead in Baku to the bold decision about breaking of the status-quo. In this context, he thinks that it is priority that the West and Russia demonstrate unwillingness to break the status-quo.

 

"Today neither Russia nor the West need a new war in Karabakh. Russia does not need it, as it will be forced to choose between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which will end in quarrel with Baku. As for the USA, today it does not have a special interest in the Caucasus, which is just a part of the global politics for the West. Moreover, in case of the new war, the oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan will find itself in the risk zone. This will lead to multiplication of the new problems for the West", - the expert concluded.

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