The Armenian public has various opinions about the goals of the events commemorating the centennial of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire. What is your opinion about the 24 April events?
Armenians worldwide obviously held the Armenian Genocide Centennial events at a proper level. It has also become obvious that at present there is at least one very important issue that consolidates Armenians worldwide. This consolidation can be compared with the consolidation of the Armenian nation in 1988. I think that the response of Germany, Austria, Vatican and the European Parliament was not spontaneous. The world has got tired of the problems created by Turkey. First of all, the matter concerns Ankara's stand on the Iraqi and other Kurds, as well as Turkey's disguised support to the ISIS. Turkey's neutrality during the second Iraqi campaign vividly demonstrated the differences between the stands of Turkey and its allies in NATO. In this light, the creation of Iraqi Kurdistan should not raise eyebrows because there are no obstacles to appearance of such an independent state.
Do you anticipate centrifugal trends from Iraq to Turkey?
Certainly, I do. The Kurds' independence will not be restricted to Iraqi Kurdistan and this aspiration will get at least a northern vector towards Turkey. So, Armenia should determine its priorities and stand on the ongoing trends, especially given that the Armenian Genocide recognition and the Armenian Cause have always been a tool for the civilized world to curb Turkey's aspirations and ambitions. It depends on the correct stand of the state whether Armenia will remain unprotected or will receive reparations from Turkey. Here much will depend on the Russia-Turkey cooperation, which will create prerequisites for Moscow's unfavorable stand on the unresolved Armenian Cause.
The Armenian leadership's latest statements create an impression that Yerevan has not yet determined its demands against Turkey. In particular, it is not clear yet, whether the recognition of the Armenian Genocide should be followed by reparations…
The recognition of the Armenian Genocide is undoubtedly important. There is no doubt either that recognition is not enough to liquidate the harm inflicted to Armenian people by Turkey. The Armenian Genocide recognition should be followed by liquidation of the Genocide consequences via restoration of the rights of the Genocide victims' descendants. In this light, no one has declared the Treaty of Sevres invalid. The Treaty of Sevres clearly points out that Armenians suffered genocide and lost their homeland. All the provisions of the Treaty of Sevres have been implemented, except for the provision touching on the Armenian Cause. I believe that the reparations are inevitable from not only moral-ethnic but also international-legal viewpoints. The Armenians have territorial, property and financial claims. The entire cultural heritage of Western Armenia should also be restored.
This sounds good. But what are the real prospects of these processes?
I am convinced that the Armenian Genocide recognition by Turkey is a matter of time. Naturally, this will become possible in case of international recognition, and its trends are vividly observed today. We see that the wide circles of the Turkish public also start recognizing this fact. Steps are being taken to destroy the wall of denial in Turkey itself. A few years ago, Turks denied the fact of the Armenian Genocide and admitted no dissidence in this matter, but the current trends in the Turkish society are absolutely different. The matter concerns not only the public but also the authorities. The strengthening international pressure on Turkey will lead to recognition of the Armenian Genocide.
Has present-day Armenia got any resources or capacities to make Turkey recognize the Genocide and give reparations for the crime committed a century ago?
Present-day Armenia hasn't, unfortunately. Whether Armenia will come across difficulties in the genocide recognition process or will receive fair reparations depends on Armenians only. It is only the consolidation of Armenians similar to the consolidation demonstrated in Yerevan on April 24 that will create a strong basis for achieving recognition and receiving reparations.
The Forty Martyrs Armenian Cathedral in Aleppo was destroyed by the Islamic State militants on April 26, two days after Aram I Catholicos of the Great House of Cilicia demanded reparations from Turkey for the descendants of the Armenian Genocide victims. The “response” has demonstrated that the Armenians' demands are not safe for Armenians themselves…
Turkey is behind the destruction of the Forty Martyrs Armenian Cathedral in Aleppo. We must realize that any fight bears certain risks. The destruction of the Armenian church has once again confirmed that fact. To bring these risks to a minimum, we need consolidated public, a consolidated nation that lives for common goals. Indeed, it is not sufficient to protect a specific church outside Armenia. However, consolidated public that trusts in the legitimate authorities is enough to give a proper response to the existing fundamental risks. In the 1990s Armenia gained victory in the war mainly due to the legitimate authorities and the public trusting in the authorities. Everything has changed after the war, what we have now is election rigging, crackdown of political parties, etc. There is no such consolidation now even when the country faces a threat of new aggression by Azerbaijan. The reason is that the power in Armenia is not legitimate. Nevertheless, I am sure that even in such situations the country has all the necessary means for self-defense and adequate retaliation of any aggression.
It appears that the major threat to Armenia is the economic climate, not Azerbaijan or Turkey…
The major threats to Armenia are the heavy social and economic situation, insufficient protection of human rights and justice, lack of hope for better future, uncompetitive political field, and by no means Azerbaijan or Turkey. This set of problems remains the threat number one to Armenia, as there are no conditions to change anything so far. I am sure that such kind of separation of the citizens from the state, high level of the public polarization, de-socialization affect the country's ability to meet external threats.
We, the ordinary citizens, see the reasons of this situation and even the ways to correct the situation. Don't the authorities see the reasons?
The country's leadership feels no responsibility for the country entrusted to it. Quite the contrary, the leadership perceives the country as an object for seasonal work to accumulate wealth and escape promptly. Armenia has turned into a country where the people who established it - the Karabakh War participants - are jailed, where the state departments spend the budget funds to buy expensive cars instead of assisting hundreds of families of the freedom-fighters that were killed in the early 90s. In other words, the authorities are well aware of the situation, but do not want to correct it. They just deteriorate the situation pressing the small and medium-sized businesses for their personal interests. One should not wait for any feeling of responsibility from such seasonal authorities.
By official data, Armenia is in the lead in the number of policemen per capita. In the meantime, the country is experiencing processes of isolation of disobedient citizens. What do you think this alarming trend means?
It demonstrates zero public confidence in the authorities of Armenia. The public has nothing to do with those who call themselves power. The society did not vote for these people during the elections even for bribes, even under the pressure of administrative resources. Therefore, the power of such questionable quality can rely on the police's batons only. The more batons the police have, the more confident the power is. Today the authorities solve their own problems by means of police batons. The big number of the police has no other explanation. Even the official data do not reflect the reality given that the number of the policemen should be compared to the real, not official population of Armenia. One can verify the real data by visiting a village on an election day and comparing the real number of voters to the voters' lists.
And still, what for does the power need so many batons?
The authorities need so many batons first of all because they seek to bring the Karabakh war veterans under control. The Karabakh war veterans are not afraid of shots and they enjoy the public esteem. The veterans remain the only obstacle in the way of the authorities' outrage. The key targets of the policy aimed at turning Armenia into a police-run state are such people as Zhirayr Sefilyan, Volodya Avetisyan, Shant Harutyunyan. So, Armenia is an absolute champion by the number of its law-enforcers and it is not even funny, unfortunately.