Visit of Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Moscow on September 23 pursues two goals - Syria and Nagony Karabakh. According to Stratfor analysts, Russia's strengthening position in Syria has complicated the plans of Ankara in the Middle East.
"Unlike its other coalition partners, Turkey is interested in more than an anti-Islamic State campaign in Syria. Turkey hopes to ultimately cultivate a Sunni-led Syria, or at least a strong Turkish sphere of influence in northern Syria. Ankara is a major supporter of the rebels, while Russia supports the Syrian government forces. And Russia's expanded aerial presence seriously complicates Turkey's plans for a no-fly zone in Syria. This sets the stage for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to travel to Moscow on Wednesday to meet with Putin. Tensions are high between Ankara and Moscow, and not just over Syria. In recent months, Russia has warmed up to Azerbaijan, Turkey's traditional ally in the Caucasus. Rumors are swirling that Baku and Moscow are collaborating on a way to shake up the status quo in the long-frozen conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. Ankara has been Baku's military guarantor should the conflict resume, but now Moscow is trying to position itself to be the sole outside power guaranteeing security on the ground. In addition, energy negotiations between Russia and Turkey for the TurkStream project have stalled, mainly because the two sides cannot agree on the mechanisms and timing of discounts for natural gas. Putin could connect Syria with either of these issues when negotiating with Erdogan," Stratfor analysts say.