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In Armenia all three composite indices – business activity, business climate and consumer confidence – continue to decline

  • by Karina Melikyan

  • Thursday, February 6, 13:51

 In Armenia, due to the negative expectations of business entities, all the three composite indices – business activity, business climate and consumer confidence – continue to decline.

According to a survey by the Central Bank of Armenia, in Q4 2013 the business activity index dropped from 54.9 points to 50.1 points, the business climate index from 53.9 points to 50.9 points, the consumer confidence index from 41.9 points to 40.9 points. As compared with Q4 2012 the first two indices fell by 12 points and 3.4 points, respectively, while the last index rose by 0.2 points. As compared with Q4 2011 all the three indices dropped - by 5.5, 0.6 and 3.3 points, respectively.

The drop in the business activity index was due to slowing down economic activity and growing pessimism in all sectors. The highest activity was registered in industry (52.8 points against 56.2 points in Q3 2013, 57.2 points in Q4 2012, 61.4 points in Q4 2011). In trade the index was 51.1 points against 56.5 points in Q3 2013, 63.4 points in Q4 2012 and 50.9 points in Q4 2011. In construction the index was 49.2 points against 53.3 points in Q4 2012, 56.5 points in Q4 2012 and 43.1 points in Q4 2011. In services the index was the lowest (46.7 points against 53.6 points in Q3 2013, 72.5 points in Q4 2012 and 65.6 points in Q4 2011).

The drop in the business climate index was due to pessimism in all sectors. The highest business climate index was registered in industry (52.5 points against 56.2 points in Q3 2013, 53.5 points in Q4 2012, and 54.2 points in Q4 2011). In services the index was 51.7 points against 55 points in Q3 2013, 53.9 points in Q4 2012 and 55 points in Q4 2011. In construction the index was 50.5 points against 51.9 points in Q3 2013, 46.2 points in Q4 2012 and 49.1 points in Q4 2011. In trade the indices were 48.3, 51.9, 48.2 and 46.5 points, respectively.

The CB's survey has been held since 2005 among entities in industry, construction, services and trade. The methodology of the survey is based on principles developed by Conference Board (the United States) and IFO (Germany).

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