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Stratfor: In 2014 the Kremlin can prevent rapprochement of Georgia and Moldova with the EU, to maintain and strengthen influence in Azerbaijan and Armenia

  • Monday, January 13, 13:29

Arminfo-Turan. According to the American analytical center Stratfor, in 2014 Russia will seek to retain the old and gain new positions in the world. At the same time , it will retain flexible foreign policy and the ability to compromise.

Moscow will become a mediator in resolving complex issues and improve the position in the Middle East, relations with China and Japan.
The Kremlin can prevent rapprochement of Georgia and Moldova with the EU, to maintain and strengthen influence in Azerbaijan and Armenia, and will have a significant impact on the presidential elections in Ukraine in 2015, and the project of the Eurasian Partnership to will strengthen and expand due to Central Asian countries. The European Union will not interfere in Russia.

However , a well-known political CIA analyst Paul Goble said in his interview with  "Voice of America " that  he skeptically accepts the forecasts by  Stratfor, which exaggerates the influence of Russia in the world.

"As a result, in  their analyzes Moscow looks stronger than it is in reality , and the West looks weaker. I do not think that Russia will be more successful in the "near abroad" this year than it was ever before," said Goble .

At the same time there are no less serious challenges  in Russia: the differences within the Kremlin , economic instability and growing authoritarianism of Putin will serve a poor tool for sustainable stability. The concentration of power in the hands of one leader will play against Russia in the long term. 

"The tools used by Putin to revive the Russian state have worn out. Unhealthy economy will contribute to social unrest , while state mechanisms traditionally used to control this disorder,  are losing influence. Putin will be able to cope with the growing instability in the Kremlin and on the streets , but the process he will make the state more dependent on itself,"  reads the  analysis  by Stratfor.

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