Newsfeed

Mobile Radio available for Beeline subscribers

Yerevan: Issue of the sale of Russian military hardware to Azerbaijan is always on agenda of Armenian- Russian relations

Political expert: Ukrainian crisis is re-occurrence of conflicts of early 1990s and 08.08.08 war

View from Yerevan: Ukraine and its two regions are like a suitcase without a handle

Armenia's Deputy FM: As long as Azerbaijan continues to be non-constructive, there will be no progress in Nagorno- Karabakh peace talks

Till Dec 31 2014 Ameriabank will offer 1% bonus for mortgage loan transferred from another bank

AmCham elects Tigran Jrbashyan as its President

Owner of Old Erivan Holding: From moral point of view, my letter to the President is the last step in my fight against Unibank

Expert: Oligarchs and corruption are an even bigger threat for Armenia's national security than Turkey and Azerbaijan combined

Gevorg Kostanyan: The Shant Harutyunyan case is not politically charged

ProCredit Bank reopens renovated Artashat branch

Sharmazanov: In today's interview Gagik Tsarukyan repeated its speech at Oct 24 rally but in an easily defined form

Nikolay Ryzhkov: Nagorno-Karabakh may join EAEU after its final status is determined

Prices for meat products may grow in Armenia

Ardshininvestbank reopens its new and reconstructed Shengavit Branch

Prosperous Armenia Party has not yet determined its position regarding Armenia's joining Eurasian Economic Union

Elmar Mammadyarov: Azerbaijan is ready to start the work on the project of a great peace treaty

Azerbaijani diversionists blame their liquidated comrade Hasan Hasanov for murdering Karabakh civilian

Armen Gevorgyan appointed Head of IDeA Foundation

ArmSwissbank and Management Mix intend to set up an investment management company

Winners of "Open Game 2014" Championship of Computer and Mobile Games already announced

Ameriabank confidently strengthens its leading positions

VivaCell-MTS provides a diesel generator set to Ministry of Emergency Situations for uninterrupted operation of backup server

New garbage dump to be opened in Yerevan

The UK would not like Simferopol-Yerevan flights to be launched

Beeline and Edward Mirzoyan String Quartet announce extension of their cooperation.

Air Armenia suspends passenger operations

Head of Armenian CEC unaware of opposition's plans to organize snap parliamentary elections

Armenia's deputy finance minister does not rule out growth of prices after Armenia's joining Eurasian Economic Union

British and German Ambassadors hope Ankara will make a step towards normalization of relations with Armenia in future

David Harutyunyan: Bi polar political system is being formed in Armenia

Ukraine's Ambassador refutes reports on opening of Yerevan-Simferopol flight

Washington not commenting on Azerbaijani saboteurs' trial

Newspaper: Armenian National Congress and Heritage Party fail to persuade Leader of Prosperous Armenia Party to launch sit-down strike in Liberty Square

Edward Nalbandian says Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting in Paris was a step towards rapprochement of the two countries' positions

Analyst: There are no idiots in Russia today

Handset, tablet and internet modem repair and service center is now available in the Orange Flagship store

"Beeline Child Development Centers" opened in Ararat region of Armenia

Monitoring Report on the Agreement between EU and Armenia on Facilitation of Issuance of Visas presented in Yerevan

VivaCell-MTS implements the 6th draw "365"

Eduard Sharmazanov: It is impossible to speak of compromises if Baku rattles the sabre

Ivan Kukhta: 70% of citizens of Ukraine in Armenia supported the course of the president and government of Ukraine

Special Investigation Service of Armenia initiates criminal case regarding incident that occurred to ASALA veteran

Results of Sargsyan-Aliyev Paris meeting summed up

VTB Bank (Armenia) - the leader by the credit investments according to the results of the 3Q 2014

Cemal Pasa's grandson advocates eliminating nationalism and taboo on the term "genocide" in Turkey

Daughter of Yunus appeals to the French president

Plane flying from Tehran to Yerevan makes an emergency landing

Azeri raider Shahbaz Guliyev gives details of murder of Armenian youth

The Chkalov village community has started the construction of the water supply network

Exclusive

Ashot Manucharyan: It is very much dangerous and senseless to lead Russia to war readiness

Tigran Khzmalyan: Armenia has linked its Noah's Arc to Russia's sinking Titanik that is still selling tickets

Alexander Iskandaryan: Peace and war are the two things Russia does not need in the South Caucasus

Ariel Cohen: Putin may be compensating for reputational damage to Russia in the conflict in Ukraine by trying to resolve the Karabakh conflict

Hovhannes Igityan: Serzh Sargsyan’s geopolitical choice is an obstacle for investments in Armenia’s economy

Andrey Areshev: Russia wants to see Armenia as its strong and dynamically developing ally in the South Caucasus

Vahan Vardapetyan: October 10 will become the day of culmination of consolidation of the society around the Armenian centrist parties

Manvel Sargsyan: The myth of Russia's importance for Armenia is based on the formula "We will defend you"

Thomas De Waal: The society and power in Armenia and Azerbaijan are strongly linked by a vicious circle

Ukraine’s Ambassador to Armenia: The next phase of development of the Ukraine-EU relations may be only Ukraine's EU membership

Hakob Andreasyan: Current reforms are as important as those conducted in privatization period

Hakob Andreasyan: We try to ring-fence farmers from untypical risks

Giorgi Gvimradze: Russia's fate hangs in the balance in Ukraine

In NK peace, it is necessary to pay attention to other processes in Scotland and Catalonia

Armenia’s ex Defense Minister: We have enough options to advance to the north of Azerbaijan

Fyodor Lukyanov: Russia is interested in united Ukraine as a buffer zone between the West and Russia

ArmInfo’s Interview with Fyodor Lukyanov, Chairman of Russia's Foreign and Defense Policy Council, Chief Editor of Russia in Global Politics magazine

  • by David Stepanyan

  • Monday, May 26, 23:28

The Agreement on Eurasian Economic Union is to be signed on May 29 in Astana. According to Vladimir Putin, the procedure of Armenia’s accession to that union will be completed in the near future. Many think that Kyrgyzstan will also shortly join the Eurasian Economic Union. Can we expect this to happen on May 29, before the two countries join the Customs Union?   

 

I am not sure that Armenia and Kyrgyzstan will be admitted into the Eurasian Union on May 29. There must be no haste here. The Eurasian integration project is an internally complicated process. Now that it is taking its final shape, we see how many contradictions there are among its three authors. I don't doubt that the agreement on the Eurasian Economic Union will be signed, but the key concern of the signatories on May 29 will be to solve their existing problems and to outline their future positions. And the union's enlargement will hardly be helpful at that moment. Russia, on the one side, and Kazakhstan and Belarus, on the other, have quite different positions on enlargement. Russia is interested in admitting new members as it has more than just economic interests, while Kazakhstan and Belarus wonder why they should hurry to enlarge. In any case, speaking logically, I see no need to hurry about this.

 

Do the refusal of Nursultan Nazarbayev to take part in the Summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the reluctance of Alexander Lukashenko to support Vladimir Putin's statements on Ukraine mean that the Ukrainian events are the key factor causing controversy among Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus?

 

I don’t think so. Of course, the situation in Ukraine has cast a shadow on the Eurasian Union project. But the key problem is that Kazakhstan is no longer sure about Russia's Eurasian priorities - for Eurasian integration is one process, while reunification of the Russian world (the idea that has been widely discussed after the events in Crimea) is a quite different story. These two processes are not mutually exclusive but they certainly need to be fit to one another. So, Russia must try to find some common ground here.

 

Following the reunification of Crimea and Russia within the frames of reunification of the Russian world, the Luhansk and Donetsk republics have also applied for such “reunification”. Will that application be satisfied? 

 

No response from the Kremlin to the requests by the Luhansk and Donetsk republics to join Russia means that this is not the same story as Crimea. In Russia crucial decisions are made by one person, and this is not a secret.  Putin's spokesman officially confessed recently that it was Putin's single-handed decision to reunify Crimea with Russia. This proves that in Russia any decisions can be made single-handedly. And as far as Luhansk and Donetsk are concerned, the plans of the key designer are not yet known. Judging from the current developments, we can assume that the Kremlin wants these territories to remain part of Ukraine, but a different Ukraine, cynically speaking, a Ukraine that will serve as a buffer zone between the West and Russia. And all these 'republics' are supposed to transform into one big Russian party, a force that will block any of Kyiv's attempts to integrate into NATO. This would be the best scenario for them in the Kremlin. Of course, they can convince their citizens that Odessa, Luhansk and Donetsk are also parts of the Russian world, but this is hardly what they want for the moment.

 

How high is the probability that the West and Russia will at last agree on Ukraine? How can one avoid Ukraine’s split similar to that in Georgia in 2008?

 

The Ukrainian proportions are larger than the Georgian ones. I think that here we may compare the situation with that in Germany at the end of the World War II, that is to say, on the one hand, the sides being the buffer zone, and on the other hand, a unique potential battle field. At the same time, principally, it is possible to make an arrangement with the West on Ukraine. The West's position will change in future. Of course, the West's position is not becoming more positive regarding Russia, but it will become more politically correct and reflecting the reality. That is to say, the viewpoint, according to which, Putin has been ruling everything in Russia and if he wants, everything will end in Ukraine, is wrong. The Ukrainian society is splitting at present because of different reasons. The people that proclaim people's republics have not come from abroad, and are not political fringes. These people are from Ukraine. In such a unique way they have been reflecting local mood in the Ukrainian society. And the authorities of Ukraine can do nothing with a help of force. In this context the time will come when the West will understand the core and the deep reasons of the situation in Ukraine. After the election of Pyotr Poroshenko as a president of Ukraine, an attempt of the national dialogue for reformation of the Ukrainian statehood has become possible. A new man has come, and it is not important if the whole country has elected him or not. Even Russia is ready to blench it. Poroshenko is a man of another team, differing from those who have been dealing with the crisis management in Ukraine now. So, Turchinov, Avakov and may be Yatsenyuk will be forced to leave. After that, the new president will gain a space to maneuver. He may simply blame Turchinov for the anti-terrorist operation, and offer a serious dialogue to Russia and the southeast regions of Ukraine.

 

For successful dialogue, it should involve those who the present Ukrainian authorities call terrorists and separatists. There is no sense to hold a dialogue with the oligarchs of the east. The West understands it and makes statements according to which the population of the southeast of Ukraine must not be ignored. These statements made by Berlin and Washington are evidence of the fact that they have started understanding the Ukrainian reality there. Incidentally, there are many obstacles on the way of settlement, including the fact that actually Russia does not control everything happening in Ukraine. It would be simpler, if Russia controlled. Actually, the Pandora's box has opened in Ukraine, and those who were pressed for the last years, have stepped out of it. For this reason, it is rather hard to make the settlement scenarios. Certainly, there is a chance that in the near future Ukraine will become a treaty state. But by such settlement nobody will finally make friends. This is a principally important problem. I do not mean settlement of the conflict between the West and Russia. I mean only minimizing of the risks in the spheres of their interests. Such an agreement may work for a certain period of time. But the problem in the relations of these force centres is endless, and it is at least for the forth time in the history that Ukraine is again between the West and Russia.

Send to a friend

To (e-mail)


Your name


Message


Comments

View comments (0)
  • READ ALL COMMENTS
  • POST A COMMENT

Be first to comment on this article

* Indicates required fields