Another Armenian soldier killed in Azerbaijan's sabotage attack overnight

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Vice Speaker of Armenian Parliament: Madrid Principles are not the key element of the Karabakh peace process

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Russian Embassy in Armenia gives a harsh response to the U.S. Embassy

Participants in Beeline's Fortune drawing campaign awarded prizes

Yerevan-Sevan-Ijevan-Azeri border highway to be open in late August

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Up to 45% of Armenian citizens are potential emigrants

US Embassy urges Armenian businessmen to refrain from contacts with Russian companies

A leopard family in the south of Armenia gives birth to two cubs

Two Armenian soldiers die because of the Azerbaijani sabotage attack at the line of contact

Human rights activist Leyla and Arif Yunus are accused of secret collaboration with Armenian special services

Member-churches of World Council of Churches going to recognize Armenian Genocide in 2015

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On Aug 2 South Caucasus Railway's commuter trains will be free of charge all over Armenia

Worker killed by a rock fall at perlite deposit in Aragatsavan

Azeris continue firing at Armenia's borderline villages

Serzh Sargsyan: OSCE Minsk Group has suggested principles that can serve as pivot for settling Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Paruyr Hayrikyan: Armenia and Ukraine have a common "frenemy" in the person of Russia

Electric Networks of Armenia is going to dispute Public Services Regulatory Commission's decision to impose a 15mln AMD fine on it

Economist: In face of economic sanctions against Russia, it is necessary to speed up the process for creating Eurasian Economic Union

Economist: The West's sanctions against Russia will affect the Armenian economy

Rostelecom launches online payment service

Public Services Regulatory Commission of Armenia imposes a 15mln AMD fine on Electric Networks of Armenia

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Oppositionist: Interests and viewpoints of Stepanakert do not necessarily coincide with those of Yerevan

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Deputy Prime Minister of Azerbaijan criticizes the ICRC again

Nature protection minister charges to resolve problems of several tailing dumps on Syunik region

Official stance of VTB Bank OJSC and VTB Bank (Armenia) CJSC on U.S. sanctions

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US Department of State: Media outlets of Armenia published inaccurate articles portraying religious minorities as criminals and spies

Levon Hayrapetyan loses consciousness on Wednesday morning


Hrant Bagratyan: Sanctions will have tangible impact on Armenia

Georgi Kolarov: The second Nagorno-Karabakh war is inevitable

Artashes Shaboyan: Reduction in consumer demand has a negative effect on supermarkets

Tigran Davtyan: If you have a telephone with you, it means that you have a wallet with you too

Shmuel Meirom: Israel is willing to contribute of its experience in the field of economy, but it cannot force Israeli business to invest in Armenia

Marine Karapetyan: Ameriabank on large business: problems and solutions

Eduard Sharmazanov: The opposition camp has no leader to steer the people

Alexander Zinker: Readiness of the Kremlin to protect its “Big Russian world” is dangerous for Russia itself

Vahe Davtyan: lternative power engineering should be developed regardless of fluctuations in electric power tariffs

Alexander Krylov: Taking into consideration the experience of the EU, Russia has to refuse maximal extension of the Eurasian Economic Union

Rasim Musabekov: Not only global but also the regional geo-political balance is changing

Zardusht Alizade: Apart, Armenia and Azerbaijan will always remain non-democratic fascist states

Thomas de Waal: What was possible between Sweden and Finland in the past century is impossible today between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Zhirayr Sefilyan: The format of our relations with Russia needs revision

Yana Amelina: The West or Russia, that is the question

Gia Nodia: Not the shortage of territories but finding a place in the world is the key problem of Russia

Mateusz Piskorski: Why does Armenia need low prices for cars if they are going to be bombed?

ArmInfo’s interview with Mateusz Piskorski, Director General of the European Center of Geopolitical Analysis

  • by David Stepanyan

  • Saturday, March 1, 14:33

Do the agreements following the two events in Geneva continue the “reset” of the US-Russian relations?   


I see no prospect for the regular and true rebooting especially after the latest events in Ukraine. There is no accord in the matter of the Syrian conflict settlement either. One principle difference between Washington and Moscow is always preserved - the first does not see an opportunity to keep representatives of Bashar al-Assad in the new transitional government, whereas the second is for the political settlement on the basis of preserving sovereignty of the Syrian state. Such a position causes much difference in interpretation of the key political ideas of the two superpowers. The USA thinks it is possible to topple any power on the basis of protection the rights of national minorities and citizens. Moscow is for peace without the external interference in local affairs of sovereign states.  So, they have no general approach. This is the matter of elementary values. In this case, Syria is a polygon of fight between the one-pole world of de-sovereignty offered by Washington, and the multi-pole world of sovereign states and various integration unions offered by Moscow.  This confrontation is not so much obvious in case of Iran.  However, here as well, there is difference of approaches.


Russia blames the West for the development in Ukraine. The West, in turn, blames the Kremlin? Which one is right?


After the coup in Kyiv, the struggle for Ukraine switched to an absolutely new stage. Many people say that the latest events in Kyiv mean the geopolitical defeat of Russia and its integration aspirations at the post-Soviet area. Actually, the present situation is much linked with the nature of the Ukrainian statehood, which supposes resolving of local political and economical conflicts by means of maidan and protest actions. There is a permanent war of oligarchic clans in Ukraine. For this reason, it is hard to say about a consistent policy, and it is likely to say about redivision of the influence zones in the privatized economy. If Ukrainian oligarchs think that joining the Customs Union is useful, they will do that. But if they think that rapprochement with the European Union is more beneficial, they will adopt such a decision. The ruling regime in Russia understands it. For this reason, they consider Ukraine not an established state but an oligarchic structure, which pretends to be a state. Against such a background, one can say that Ukraine is a "chronic ill" entity of Eastern Europe. Naturally, this is a problem to all its neighbors. Participation of Ukraine in any integration unions and programmes is possible only in case of creation of true state structures at its territory.


Can the present conflict in Ukraine lead to the country’s state and territorial collapse? How do you think the developments in Ukraine will end?   


After the recent events in Ukraine, it is not ruled out that Ukraine will transfer to federative and confederative system and later separate entities of this structure may declare independence. There is no general idea that unites the Ukrainian state. There are many positions and interests, which cancel each other out. For this reason, the split of the current territory of Ukraine may be the only way for creation of the state structures at this territory. However, Ukraine will not break down soon. It may happen as a result of the long-lasting process of disintegration in which external factors will also take part. However, nobody has drawn such a conception or analyzed consequences of such a scenario.


The Kremlin is not going to give up the idea of creation of a European Union. Will Moldova and Azerbaijan be in the focus of the reintegration policy?


Chisinau will probably have to study the Eurasian course of its foreign policy, due to its economic dependence. Some regions of Moldova supported the Gagauzia referendum displaying the actual preferences of the people. The people seem to have realized that the path to the EU suggested by Romania is little realistic. Bucharest has no real levers of influence in Brussels, despite the 'imperial' statements of President Basescu. After the parliamentary elections, Chisinau's relations with the CU will be discussed and the result of these discussions will greatly depend on Moscow's offers. As for Baku, I don't believe it may seriously study Eurasian integration, at least, at the given stage.               Probably, some Azerbaijani politicians use 'Eurasian' rhetoric to frighten and exert pressure on Armenia. There is an impression that Baku tries to persuade Armenia that even the Customs Union will not make them feel secure. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan's statements must not be taken seriously. Baku has been building its foreign political identity creating an image of Russian threat and Moscow's imperialism too long. Even with ceasefire breaches on the border with Armenia and Karabakh, the Azerbaijani leadership tries to detract the attention of its own public from domestic problems. Every time a threat of unrest emerges in Baku, provocation happens on the border. It is difficult to imagine peaceful resolution of the conflict. It will require at least change of political elite in Baku, because the incumbent authorities will hardly be able to change their rhetoric and actions.


Do you think the military and political preferences can compensate and even overbalance the ambiguous economic prospects of Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union?  


Why do you need low prices for cars if they are going to be fired at or bombed? So, this is a problem of the system of values and priorities. I think that in case of Armenia, it is hard to discuss any vectors of foreign policy without taking the security factor into consideration.  In fact, at present only Russia owns enough potential for prevention of the armed conflict in the region. As regards the economic consequences of Armenia's integration in the Eurasian projects, there are certain risks when fulfilling any such project, linked with the necessity of transition to another customs regime and introduction of certain standards and norms. Nevertheless, there are more risks in case of any country's joining the EU or even signing the Association agreement with the EU. Naturally, the level of the economic security of population much depends on ability of the political leadership of the country to conduct effective talks. I think that it is possible to get certain transitional periods and preferences within the Customs Union.


How would you assess Armenia’s foreign policy?


In the conditions of the limited field to manoeuvre, Armenian diplomacy has been acting rather successfully. There are potentially big capacities linked with the southern direction of the foreign policy of the republic. First of all, it is the idea of the transport corridor connecting Russia with the Persian Gulf through Iran. Armenia may play the key part in this project, although the participation of Georgia and other regional partners in this project is also necessary. The Armenian diplomacy has to draw special attention to the processes linked with establishment of the new state in the region – Kurdistan. Despite the complicated history, it is not ruled out that Armenia will be forced to establish relations with this new geopolitical actor of the region. Although, this issue is of a strategic and long-lasting prospect, it may change much in Armenia's relations with the neighboring states.

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