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 Saturday, September 13 2014

Степанян Դավիթ Stepanyan Ստեփանյան David Давид

Giorgi Gvimradze: Russia's fate hangs in the balance in Ukraine

Giorgi Gvimradze: Russia

 As it was expected, during the NATO
summit in Wales on 4-5 September Georgia did not get the MAP -the roadmap for
joining NATO. Meanwhile, after the war 08.08.08 the security of Georgia has
found itself to be more exposed to the new risks.  Moreover, as the Wales summit has shown, the
expectations of Tbilisi from the side of its partners to create at least the
outlines of a general security system, and to involve  NATO in the Caucasus affairs more, have not
become true. What are Georgia’s expectations from NATO today?


 

Georgia did not expect to get MAP at the Wales summit,
which was not dedicated to NATO extension. Certainly, some part of the Georgian
society had such sexed up expectations from the summit.  However, our government did everything
possible not to have such expectations. On the other hand, Georgia got from the
summit closer cooperation in security sphere. Moreover, a military and training
centre with NATO instructors and certain contingent will be opened in Georgia.
This cooperation should help enhance the national defence capacity of Georgia
and come closer to the NATO standards, which will promote Georgia's membership
in NATO. Thus, the expectations of Georgia from further integration with NATO
are positive and realistic.


 


 


After
Georgian Dream came to power in Georgiam Tbilisi’s rhetoric regarding Moscow
has softened and certain warming of relations has been observed. May the
dialogue develop to a level necessary to make any agreements in the security
field? 


 


Despite certain improvement of relations with Moscow
after coming of the "Georgian dream" to power in Georgia, at present
the level of the relations has not reached the needed degree for signing of the
Russia-Georgia security agreements. Moreover, I don't think that the thaw in
relations will ever reach this level of confidence. Anyway, everything depends
on Russia's actions in Ukraine. That is to say, Russia's fate hangs in the
balance just in Ukraine, either it will remain an active member of the European
politics, or the process of its alienation will go on developing. As a result,
Russia's aggressive actions against its neighbors will grow much. That is to
say, formally, certain agreements may be reached, but they will hardly act.


 


May the global Russia-West confrontation
spillover from Ukraine to the territory of other post-Soviet countries that
"are hesitating" about their geo-political choice?


 


Georgia is not hesitating about its geo-political
choice. Tbilisi insists on the Euroatlantic integration. Certainly, Russia's
actions in Ukraine are disturbing, as a result, a threat to the security of the
post-Soviet countries is growing, especially for such countries as Georgia and
Moldova, which have got an agenda of the foreign policy independent from
Russia. But other countries as well have no reason to live calmly. I would like
simply to remind you of the statement by president of Russia about Kazakhstan
when making a speech at the youth camp, and other examples. 


 


 


In August 2014 the Defense Ministers of
Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey - Irakli Alasania, Zakir Hasanov and Ismet
Yilmaz - met in Nakhijevan. The ministers discussed issues related to defense
of communication infrastructure, particularly, communication facilities,
railway tracks, and strategic pipelines in time of war.  The participants took a decision to hold such
consultations regularly.  The meeting
caused a surge of emotion in Baku, which predicts the fiasco of Armenia and
Nagorno-Karabakh. What are Tbilisi’s expectations from such anti-Armenian
union?


 


I think it is unacceptable to call the alliance of
Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan an anti-Armenian alliance because Georgia is
also a member of the alliance. I want to assure you that Georgia cooperates
against no country, especially, against Armenia. Georgian does not do it even
against Russia, which is occupying Georgia's territories. As regards the
specified alliance, you perfectly know how much Georgia appreciates its
relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.


 


The Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan corridor is of strategic
importance to Georgia.  Certainly, the
cooperation with these countries matters much, especially given that Turkey is
a NATO member. Notwithstanding the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and
the conflict between Armenia and Turkey, Georgia values its bilateral and
multilateral partner relations with all these countries.


 


 


Armenia
is preparing to access EEU. Georgia has been orienting its economy at Europe
after signing DCFTA. Is it reasonable for Georgia to refuse the possibilities
of the Russian marker and how it may affect the economic cooperation of Armenia
ands Georgia?


 


Although a certain part of the DCFTA has been already
working, Georgia-Russia trade and economic relations are just growing.
Therefore, at this stage Georgia is not going to fully refuse the Russian
market. It has turned out that the European countries themselves should not
trade with Russia, though we do not see that, but mutual sanctions of the
European Union and Russia.  So, the trade
and economic relations between Georgia and Russia may stop only if the
leadership of these countries have the will to stop them. To be more correct,
if they have a will not to continue them. Despite the new obstacles between
Tbilisi and Yerevan because of Armenia's intention to join the Eurasian
Economic Union, taking into consideration coincidence of interests of the two
countries, the Georgians and Armenians will be able to overcome new economic
barriers.

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