Ilham Aliyev is guarantor of non-resumption of a wide-scale war in Karabakh, Executive Director of Caucasian House (Tbilisi) Giorgi Kanashvili expressed this opinion during a two-day international conference "Caucasus- 2015".
"However strange it sounds it is true. In order to initiate wide-scale military aggression Azerbaijan's president needs minimum 100% guarantee that he personally will retain the power. Even having 98-99% guarantees he will not risk initiating adventurism of such scales. Naturally, he should receive such guarantees from external powerful centers of forces", he noted.
According to the Georgian expert, the main goal of the ruling regime in Azerbaijan is not Nagorno Karabakh but retention of the power and consequently the resources of the country. In this light launching a war not being sure of its results is problematic and therefore impossible for Aliyev.
At the same time according to Kanashvili's assessment there is another scenario, in case of which Aliyev would immediately attempt to settle Karabakh conflict by military way. And this scenario is beginning of democratic processes in Azerbaijan as it happened in Georgia during "Revolution of Roses". In this case the authorities will immediately launch large-scale war in Karabakh as Aliyev would have nothing to loose.