Sunday, January 12 2014

Mr.
Baderhan, what are the reasons of Iran's so cautious involvement in the
geopolitical processes in the South Caucasus? In this light, Armenia is a
certain exception.

 

 Surely, Tehran has big interests in the South
Caucasus, but caution is the key factor determining Iran's foreign policy
course. Actually, Iran's behavior in the Central Asian vector of its foreign
policy is similar. In this light, Tehran's major goal is so far Armenia, a
country Iran keeps building serious cooperation with in a number of fields.
Such policy is based on the problems with Azerbaijan, on the one hand, and on
the problems with Georgia - a country in the orbit of the US policy - on the
other hand.

 Sure enough, after Geneva, the US undertook a policy
of certain rapprochement with Iran, which might mean that Iran's policy in the
South Caucasus has changed. Nevertheless, I am sure that this is not the final
course of the West in the South Caucasus. They in Tehran are well aware of
Russia's intentions in the region. Considering that the relations with the
northern neighbor are a priority for Iran, Tehran will hardly go on any steps
that may spoil those relations so far.  In this light, I think, the South
Caucasus peoples should "turn to the north". Historically, the
countries in the region have been turning to the power they expected less evil
from. They used to turn to Russia, a country that has always been more liberal
in both social and religious issues. Considering the latest geopolitical shifts
in the region, I don't think that the situation has changed since then.

 

The Big Middle East has been subjected
to geopolitical shakes following the Arab revolutions. What trends do you see
in the given situation?

The recent
display of the geo-political shifts caused by the Arab revolutions, resulted in
the power change in Egypt.

That is to
say, it is the Egyptian army that sharply changed geo-strategy in the region.
The key evidence of changing the situation is the fact that according to their
traditions, Anglo-Saxondom ran towards today's strong player of the region -
Iran, undoubtedly.

Incidentally,
Teheran has already proved that it is strong. So, at present a new stage of
relations is starting between Iran and the West. These
relations seem to develop very much seriously.

 It is hard
to say how these new changes will affect the situation in the region including
in the South Caucasus. However, one thing is obvious - Iran is a part of the
world Islamism presented, for instance, by "The Brother-Muslims".  I am sure that changing of the
Iranian policy regarding Egypt, directly linked with power changing from
"The Brother-Muslims" to servicemen, has been demonstrating
rather a loyal attitude of Teheran to Islamism.

 Undoubtedly,
Turkey is also a part of the Islam world. Although, in general the Turkish
society does not welcome radical
Islamism so much, nevertheless, there are such moods in the Turkish society and
they are gradually growing. Recep Erdogan's attempts to base himself upon these
moods are evidence of that, although 90% of the Turkish society is against his
policy regarding Syria. In such conditions, the Anglo-Saxondom has nothing to
do but, at least, try to chum in with Iran.

 Russia's growing role in the Middle East affairs has become evident
after the decisions on the Syrian political crisis. What developments do you
anticipate in the given dimension?

 In this
light, there is need for an Iran-Turkey-Russia triangle. I am not very
optimistic about the prospects of such union, indeed, but the
interests of these actors coincide in many aspects. I mean the Syrian crisis,
and the South Caucasus. Turkey has seriously yielded its
positions in both Syria and the South Caucasus. Turkey's leadership is still
making boastful official statements, while the reality is quite different.
Therefore, Ankara cannot but reckon with Moscow in its actions in Syria and
South Caucasus countries.

  What
consequences will Iran's rapprochement with the West have for the South
Caucasus countries?

 It is
difficult to say now what consequences Iran's rapprochement with the West will
have for the South Caucasus countries. However, it is known for certain that if
Anglo-Saxons involve in these processes, they will never reckon with the
interests of the countries in the region. This was historically proved yet long
ago.

 Anlgo-Saxons
have been traditionally waging, to put it mildly, not so honest policy towards
the region.  Meanwhile, Russia's policy
at the given stage of history is absolutely transparent and honest and in line
with the international law. I mean the fight of two global strategies and not
ideologies. These are the strategy of Russia and China to preserve the national
states, one the one side, and the strategy of Anglo- Saxons to destroy those
states, on the other side. The line of contact of these two strategies is now
in Syria where the further world order is now being decided.

 The
Anglo-Saxons have started rather a dangerous and dirty game with Islamism as
part of their strategy. In other words, revolutions in the Middle East launched
new global restructuring. Meanwhile, the previous restructuring put an end to
the West's key rival - the Soviet Union. I am sure that there would be no
revolutions in the Arab-Muslim world but for the first restructuring.  What will happen after Iran's rapprochement
with the West will become clear very soon, anyway.

 You have mentioned that Turkey has yielded its positions in the
region. Will Iran be able to take the role of Turkey in the region in the
context of the latest geo-political shifts? 

 Nobody has
cancelled competition between Turkey and Iran in the region. It is obviously
displayed now. Turkey still preserves big chances for leadership in the Sunnite
world. Of course, the Shiite Iran is trying to take certain steps for extension
of its influence in the Sunnite world. Sometimes, it succeeds, sometimes - not
so much. For this reason, at present stage one should not expect that Iran may
replace Turkey in the region. 

 Each of
these regional superpowers has its own role in the region. Historically, there
were three regional superpowers
in the Middle East: Turkey, Iran and Egypt. All the last geo-political shifts
have not yet made noticeable
changes in this status-quo.