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by Tatevik Shahunyan
Escalation of tension on the Line of Contact of the Karabakh-Azerbaijan armed forces and on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is connected with both regional and global factors, Alexander Krylov, President of the Moscow-based Scientific Society for the Study of the Caucasus, Doctor of Historical Sciences, told ArmInfo.
According to him, the relations between Russia and the USA/NATO/EU are growing tense at the global level. "Ukraine is not the reason. The reason is the U.S.
Administration that thinks that Russia's stance on Iraq, North Africa, Syria, Snowden and others is inadmissible to Washington. To put an end to Moscow's independent policy is possible through its isolation, economic sanctions and destabilization in the regions bordering Russia. The developments in Ukraine and the upsurge in tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan fits into this context," the expert said. However, he thinks, global factors do not determine everything.
He said the forces that seek a military revenge use these factors. "Obviously, Azerbaijan seeks such revenge," Krylov said. Nevertheless, he thinks a new war in Karabakh may be unleashed if Russia fails to guarantee Armenia's security and leaves the region, like it was after the collapse of the Russian Empire.
"Theoretically, this may happen, of course. However, it is much more probable that Russia will retain its role of a global actor and our western partners will be reluctant to reckon with it even more than before. In such case, the tensions will be followed with another defuse of tension. Such developments will help stabilize the situation in the Karabakh conflict zone and in the South Caucasus, generally," the expert said.