Mr.Poghosyan, the 4 opposition
factions of the Parliament are considering a vote of no confidence in the
Government. Do you think they
will reach a consensus?
I
think that the non-coalition parliamentary factions - Armenian National
Congress, Prosperous Armenia Party, ARF Dashnaktsutyun and Heritage - will be
able to join efforts to vote non-confidence in the Government of Armenia.
Unlike the initiatives of the past years where these 4 factions had
disagreements, today they have a single stance. They have got a certain experience
of coordination of their actions. Moreover, for the last months, in fact,
members of the Government could not give any strict answers to all the problems
raised by the opposition in the Parliament, regarding the gas agreements with
Russia, the obligatory accumulative pension system and the sale of the Vorotan
Hydro Cascade. I should say that today the opposition is acting rather
correctly and at the professional level. The problems voiced by them are
clearly-worded and they manage to put both the parliamentary majority and the
government on the spot. Naturally, in such conditions, we may make a conclusion
about the failed government.
What can you say of Prosperous
Armenia’s stance? Today it criticizes the Government for the decisions it used
to support when being a member of the ruling coalition…
The Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP)
is also concerned with the problems raised by the other 3 non-coalition
factions, for instance, the 300 mln debt for the Russian gas or the sale of the
Government’s stake in ArmRusgasprom to Gazprom. One should not rule out the
behind-the-scenes discrepancies between the PAP and the authorities. But we
have no clear information on that. Certainly, any process has its pitfalls and
this case is no exception.
Do you share the first President of
Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s opinion that Gagik Tsarukyan
is not worse than Bidzina Ivanishvili and that he can contribute to radical
reforms and further shift in power in the country?
I do
not share Ter-Petrosyan's viewpoint. Unlike Bidzina Ivanishvili, who earned his
property outside Georgia and arrived in the native land with the purpose to
change the regime, Tsarukyan is a local businessman and does not have a goal to
change the power. He takes the hints
addressed to him only like interesting ideas. I think that Ter-Petrosyan was
trying to push Tsarukyan to resolute actions, but it is hard to say if the
Prosperous Armenia Party leader will listen to them or not. There are bigger
and more influential Armenian businessmen abroad, who are really able to change
something in Armenia. However, we have not noticed such intentions from their
side. As for the PAP, they do not even call themselves opposition. They avoid
this word. What power change do you speak about?!
The President of Armenia has
recently stressed the need to thoroughly study the gas agreements with Russia
and to bring the delinquents to responsibility in case violations are revealed.
It appears that the authorities themselves admit that their steps are not
far-sighted.
It
is a funny story. First, they signed an agreement, ratified it, and only then
decided to study it and find guilty persons. This is a result of the rash
policy conducted by the authorities. It is not hard for the Republican Party of
Armenia, instructed from above, to adopt any draft law in the parliament thanks
to being the majority in the parliament. At the same time, I think that the
president is not always informed about the details of the decision adopted by
the government or the initiated draft laws. He does not fully master the
information around these processes. And when the opposition starts studying
these decisions and putting forward strict arguments against them, all the
defects of this or that decision are exposed. The opposition is not able to
resist the authorities or torpedo their decisions alone. Certainly, the
opposition camp has skilled specialists in economics, but their surgical
strikes on the authorities' positions are unable to weaken them.
What role do the civil movements
play in the current processes?
Certainly, the civil initiatives are
independent formations. Moreover, the civil sector representatives are tired of
both the opposition and the pro-power parties’ activities. Unlike the
opposition parties, civil initiatives do not seek to change the power. Their
protest is directed against specific actions of the Government. Of course, the
opposition wants to saddle and manipulate the civil movements but it will fail
to, I think.
The authorities are afraid that
Armenia may experience a Ukrainian scenario. What can you say about possible
re-occurrence of the Ukrainian developments here?
I
believe that the developments in Kyiv have put the Armenian authorities on
alert, though they do not confess it. In order to avoid destabilization of the
domestic political situation in the country, the Armenian authorities should
create a big coalition with the opposition and the rest of the society. The
people should by no means be driven to despair, because if the citizens' patience
is exhausted, neither the Karabaklh conflict nor any other foreign threats will
prevent a rebellion. Our people are gradually coming out of apathy. As a
sociologist, I can say with confidence that Armenia is on an explosive-timing
device and may explode at any moment. The public discontent is escalating with
every passing hour, and the authorities should realize the danger of the
situation. If the authorities continue this policy, we may lose not only
Artsakh but also Armenia. The rebellion on Maidan is an uncontrollable
rebellion and neither the authorities nor the opposition can suppress it.