Saturday, July 30 2016 04:24

Stratfor analytical center touched upon the ongoing situation in Yerevan related to seizure of Police Patrol Service Regiment in Armenia and linked it with the negotiations around Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, according to the article published on the organization's website. 

The center notes that an armed group that stormed a police office in Yerevan on July 17 and has occupied the building among other motives has cited Armenia's recent losses around the breakaway territory of Nagorno- Karabakh as a reason for the attack. 

"In the face of the government's failure to resolve the situation, citizens have taken to the streets to protest officials' handling of the crisis. The incident has revealed just how little room the administration of President Serzh Sarkisian -already under pressure from Russia and the West to end the impasse with Azerbaijan over the disputed region - has to maneuver" the article reads. 

According to Stratfor beyond the immediate tactical dilemma, the hostage crisis has exposed a bigger problem for the Armenian government. Since the clash in April, a flurry of diplomatic activity mediated by Russia and the West has taken place between Armenia and Azerbaijan in search of a political resolution to the conflict - something that has remained elusive since the countries signed their original cease-fire in 1994. Because Armenia won that war, Yerevan would prefer to maintain the current political and territorial status of Nagorno-Karabakh.  Azerbaijan naturally has an interest in challenging it. The April stunt was a means to present that challenge by forcing the revival of talks and inducing Russia - Armenia's traditional ally - not only to withhold its support for the Armenian military but also to pressure Yerevan into taking the negotiations seriously.
"The talks have undermined the Armenian government's position at home. Many Armenians fear that Sarkisian will grant political and territorial concessions to Azerbaijan to prevent a broader military engagement over the disputed region. Sarkisian is stuck between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, Russia and the West are pushing Yerevan to make progress on finding a political solution to the Nagorno- Karabakh issue. But on the other, Sarkisian is aware that any major concessions could threaten his position in office, and potentially even topple the government. Though the hostage crisis is not driven solely by concerns over Nagorno-Karabakh, it is strongly influenced by them and is proof of the instability that a diplomatic deal on the region could produce. Combined with the population's rising discontent with security crackdowns, centralization of power and corruption that are associated with Sarkisian's rule, the standoff with the Founding Parliament has further weakened the government's grip", the authors of the article stress.