Considering the current geopolitical balance of power in the world, Azerbaijan may attack Artsakh and Armenia only if it obtains appropriate guarantees of Russia, political analyst Saro Saroyan told ArmInfo.
Azerbaijan's security detachments have been attacking the Armenian positions in the Tavush region within half an hour on January 23. Lieutenant Karen Galstyan and common Artak Sargsyan were killed in the attack. The enemy suffered causalities and was thrown back to its original positions. Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan and Minister of Emergency Situations Armen Yeristyan are currently on the combat positions to get first-hand view of the situation.
"Considering the current geopolitical balance, only a specific geopolitical center - Moscow - can provide Baku with such guarantees. However, Russia has already experienced rather serious geopolitical defeat. Consequently, all the major issues, including in our region, are now decided by the actors much more influential than Russia is," Saroyan said.
In this light, the analyst says, in Baku they realize the geopolitical situation well enough not to unleash "unsanctioned" war against the Armenians republics with its new, even more serious aftermaths. The world is now based on the military-political balance of interests where countries need to regularly demonstrate their importance as subjects. Saroyan believes that Armenia also needs to do it.
"Raids are the work of snipers. Ceasefire breaches by Aliyev's regime aim to settle the domestic problems in the country, exaggerate the danger of the external enemy, to justify the inflammatory rhetoric etc. However, all this bears no relation to a real war," he said for conclusion.
It is noteworthy that the Armenian and NKR Armed Forces suffered up to 10 casualties in numerous raids by Azerbaijan in January 2015 alone. By unofficial data, Azerbaijan has suffered much more losses. By official reports, no casualties were registered during the ceasefire breaches.