Thursday, September 11 2014

Moscow
seems to have been aggravating a longstanding conflict between Armenia and
Azerbaijan while playing peacemaking overlord to both, writes the author of
"Russia's Next Land Grab" article published in The New York Times.

 

Further in the article: "UKRAINE isn't the only
place where Russia is stirring up trouble. Since the Soviet Union broke up in
1991, Moscow has routinely supported secessionists in bordering states, to
coerce those states into accepting its dictates. Its latest such effort is
unfolding in the South Caucasus.

 

In recent weeks, Moscow seems to have been aggravating
a longstanding conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan while playing
peacemaking overlord to both. In the first week of August, as many as 40
Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers were reported killed in heavy fighting near
their border, just before a summit meeting convened by Russia's president,
Vladimir V. Putin.

 

The South Caucasus may seem remote, but the region
borders Russia, Iran and Turkey, and commands a vital pipeline route for oil
and natural gas to flow from Central Asia to Europe without passing through
Russia."

 

The author recalls that despite a cease-fire agreement
since 1994, hostilities occasionally flare, and Russian troops run Armenia's
air defenses. "Moscow also controls key elements of Armenia's economy and
infrastructure. More to the point, Russia has found ways to keep the conflict
alive. Three times in the 1990s, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed peace
agreements, but Russia found ways to derail Armenia's participation. (In 1999,
for example, a disgruntled journalist suspected of having been aided by Moscow
assassinated Armenia's prime minister, speaker of Parliament and other

 

government officials.)"

 

An unresolved conflict - a "frozen
conflict,"  Russia calls it - gives
Russian forces an excuse to enter the region and coerce both sides, the author
writes. Once Russian forces are in place, neither side can cooperate closely
with the West without fear of retribution from Moscow.  According to the article, Renewed open
warfare would give Russia an excuse to send in more troops, under the guise of
peacekeeping. Destabilizing the South Caucasus could also derail a huge gas
pipeline project, agreed to last December, that might lighten Europe's
dependence on Russian fuel.

 

The author
is astonished at the actions of American officials, who reacted to the current
fighting by saying they "welcome" the Russian-sponsored summit
meeting. "Has Washington learned nothing from Georgia and Ukraine? To
prevent escalation of the Caucasus conflict, and deny Mr.  Putin the pretext for a new land grab,
President Obama should invite the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia to
Washington and show that America has not abandoned the South Caucasus. This
would encourage the leaders to resist Russia's pressure," he writes.

 

The author
is sure that Washington should put the blame on Russia and "resist any
so-called conflict resolution that leads to deployment of additional Russian
troops in the region. Finally, the West needs a strategy to prevent Moscow from
grabbing another bordering region. 
Nagorno- Karabakh, however remote, is the next front in Russia's efforts
to rebuild its lost empire. Letting the South Caucasus lose its sovereignty to
Russia would strike a deadly blow to America's already diminished ability to
seek and maintain alliances in the former Soviet Union and beyond.