Gevorg Poghosyan: Comparatively easy victory of incumbent President of Armenia will make him less dependent on oligarchs

ArmInfo’s Interview with Gevorg Poghosyan, Director of Sociology and Philosophy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia

• by Ashot Safaryan

• Wednesday, January 23, 09:45

Mr. Poghosyan, many experts and observers believe that Serzh Sargsyan will win a landslide victory at the forthcoming presidential election in Armenia. What risks may this victory imply? And will the regime be able to make it fully legal?

The victory of the incumbent President is actually indisputable. Our last joint survey with the Armenian Office of Gallup International Association has shown that 49% of Armenians are ready to vote for him. At that time it was not known yet if the leader of Prosperous Armenia Party Gagik Tsarukyan and the first President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan would run for presidency or not. Today we know that they will not, so, left without serious rivals, Sargsyan will win in the very first round. According to our preliminary estimates, the 40% of votes that would go to Tsarukyan will now go to Sargsyan, which means additional 10% to existing 49%. But as the election date will be approaching Sargsyan’s party will be mobilizing more and more resources and voters, so, this figure may well grow. The Republicans have always been good at mobilizing their voters, which was proved by the last parliamentary elections.

So, we cannot speak of any competition, can we?

I do not fully agree with this statement at least because three of the candidates – the leader of Heritage Party Raffi Hovannisian, former Prime Minister Hrant Bagratyan and the leader of the National Self-Determination Union Paruyr Hayrikyan - have quite interesting ideas. So, there will certainly be interesting debates. Moreover, if Sargsyan wins, he may well use some of the ideas or may even involve some of his rivals into his team. This time a comparatively easy victory of the incumbent President of Armenia will make him less dependent on many people, first of all, on oligarchs. The current situation offers Sargsyan more freedom, so, he will be able to make decisions that will be bad for oligarchs but good for ordinary people. 

Nevertheless, do the authorities realize that a landslide victory may cause accusations of fraud or unpleasant comparisons with the Middle Asian countries’ regimes?  

We really have many such countries, especially in the post-Soviet territory, where the incumbent president gains a victory with 80% or 90% votes. I mean Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Belarus. But on the other hand, we do not see any external pressure upon these countries because of the disputable results of the elections. Neither the EU nor the OSCE or PACE or any other organizations applied any harsh sanctions against these states. The threat of pressure from the world community has never frightened the leaders of the above-mentioned states. So, I think the Armenian authorities should not fear sanctions in case of gaining any fantastic number of votes at the election, especially as it is hardly possible that 80% of the electorate will vote for Sargsyan. We will not be ashamed of the election results.

Do you rule out the possibility of large-scale fraud or use of administrative resources?

One cannot fully rule out fraud or electoral bribery, but I think that this time they will be reduced, as the incumbent president does not have strong opponents and there is no need to bribe the voters. If the authorities are confident they will be able to get 50%+1 vote without any serious efforts, there will undoubtedly be no need to use extra administrative and financial resources.

What do you expect from further relations between the Republican Party of Armenia and the Prosperous Armenia Party after Tsarukyan’s refusal to run for presidency?

I should say that the opposition actually suffered fiasco before the presidential election. It is for the first time in the new history of Armenia when the opposition does not even participate in the election, hereby admitting its defeat. It was unexpected as the opposition was demonstrating decisiveness to fight till the very end. As regards the Prosperous Armenia Party, I should say that it is the second largest and influential force in the parliament and in the country. I don't think that Prosperous Armenia will face Orinats Yerkir's fate. Such an influential political force cannot be condemned to oblivion. I think that the political fight in the parliament will be continued and Prosperous Armenia will keep calling itself 'an alternative' to the authorities".  Prosperous Armenia and Armenian National Congress gave a free hand to the authorities by their refusal not to participate in the election process. This may, however, cost a high price to the authorities given the demands the opposition may make to them later.