Azad Isazade:Azerbaijan will not have decisive superiority over Armenia within the coming decades

Interview of military psychologist Azad Isazade (Baku) with ArmInfo news agency

• by David Stepanyan

• Thursday, January 26, 05:53

When analyzing the course of the Karabakh settlement, one has got an impression that everything is developing according to the scenario of the Palestine-Israeli conflict. What true instruments for the Karabakh conflict settlement we have today, except the war? Do they have chances to be used successfully?

 Everything in the Karabakh conflict's resolution follows the scenario of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict so far. There is neither military nor political resolution of the conflict. The resolution is in the military-political field, which, however, does not mean resumption of military actions. There are forms of military actions that do not imply armed conflicts. Various maneuvers, exercises, parades are demonstration of force and one of the forms of the intensive military activity in the military-diplomatic field. For instance,  Azerbaijan has raised the issue of restoration of the Iranian-Azerbaijani border, which is partly not under its control. He said it is an example of such diplomacy.  It does not require attacking the civilians residing in Stepanakert. It will be enough launching negotiations as an alternative to the armed  conflict. Hence, it is necessary to rule out resumption of the military conflict, first of all, and there are already certain premises for that. I am sure that in spite of its desire to unleash military actions Azerbaijan cannot do that at least before May 2012 when Eurovision Song Contest will be held in Baku.

We are not China where the Olympic Games were not boycotted despite  the developments in Tibet. In case of poor judgment, Eurovision will  remain a dream for Baku. It is not a joke, but reality. Such  arguments can be found both in Russia and the West.

May the changing of the balance between the parties to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict result in the new war?

Actually, today Azerbaijan has certain economic and military-technical superiority over Armenia. Nevertheless, we are well aware that without possible interference by third countries and other factors, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces should prevail the defending Armenians at least five-fold.
In conditions of such mountainous area as Karabakh, the offensive side needs 7-8-fold superiority, whereas Azerbaijan has just certain weapon superiority over Armenia at present. Armenia prevails over Azerbaijan with some other types of weapons. However, Azerbaijan will
not have decisive superiority over Armenia within the coming decades. In this light, Azerbaijan has only one way - a blitzkrieg, which will not make it possible for Azerbaijan to settle the issue finally. For instance, Azerbaijan can invade Aghdam, or Armenia can block Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.  But such kind of  operation will not lead the parties to final resolution of the conflict. It will just lead the conflict to the more intensive phase.

How can you explain the main reasons of servicemen death in the Armenian and Azerbaijani armies?

 Deaths from the enemy shells on the line of contact are a small percentage of the deaths in the Azerbaijani army. There are also other non-combat related deaths: diseases, humiliating treatment of juniors, suicides.

Both the Armenian and Azerbaijani armies are 'fragments' of the Soviet army with all its benefits and implications. Despite all the talks on reforms, the officer corps in both the armies is the same. Tactical instructions and regulations are still the same. Military hazing is the result of unsatisfactory work of the officer corps with the manpower. An officer must not transfer his direct duty to the senior conscripts. This is what leads to non-combat related incidents. But officer do not care for that.  Both in Armenia and Azerbaijan, he said, there are army units where "dedovshina" (military hazing) is not so critical. Referring to the Armenian officers he met at various forums. The situation in Armenia is different. The military hazing in Azerbaijan is critical and sometimes results in deaths, while in Armenia there is certain second hierarchy of senior conscripts. There are "supervisors" in the army units and the officer corps has been quite successfully fighting this phenomena for several years. It is very important, for in case of an armed conflict, such double hierarchy may have unpredictable results. 

The leadership of Armenia and Nagornyy Karabakh reiterated many times about their readiness to withdraw snipers from the line of contact, but Baku does not share such readiness. What is the reason of it? And what is the core of senseless death of young people from both parties?

The withdrawal of Armenian and Azerbaijani snipers from the line of contact is not the best way out from the created situation. In our armies snipers are chiefly soldiers of the involuntary service.  For this reason for withdrawal of snipers we shall be forced to change the whole staff structure of the Armed Forces.  I think that a sniper has no right to shoot without the order. In this case, either defence ministers of both states do not so much own the situation at the line of contact, as their order not to fire is ignored, or they give another secret order to fire. I think  that to stop the sniper war not the withdrawal of snipers is necessary but a strict order of defence ministers to stop fire. The expert thinks that even if snipers stop firing, the bigger skirmish among intelligence officers and sabotage groups will often happen.

Defence ministers and commanders of the general headquarters are directly linked with each other, and if desired, they could think over the conditions of the specific ceasefire. Every sniper's bullet increases the possibility of the relevant asymmetric respond of the enemy, and raises the possibility of a large-scale war  starting. That is to say, this bullet may become the last drop after which the situation will be out of control. For this reason, not the snipers should be removed but the separation line of the confronting forces enlarged.

The position of the Armenian parties to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict is in making compromise based on an accord to yield several regions in return to recognize independence of Nagornyy Karabakh by the official Baku. But such an offer is not accepted by those which are guided by the principle everything or nothing”…

At present the Armenian party offers to discuss the destiny of 5 regions, but Azerbaijan demand all 7. The recognition of independence of Nagornyy Karabakh is not a compromise of Azerbaijan but just recognition of the present status-quo. In return, Azerbaijan offers an option of a wider autonomy, of which they did not even want to listen to in Stepanakert.

By the way, there is no point about autonomy in the Constitution of Azerbaijan…

The present status-quo of the NKR is preserved thanks to the interests of certain force centers, but it will change after changing of their priorities. If such changes happen in Russia and Turkey, after which Armenia and Azerbaijan will feel their force, the status-quo will also change. Actually, we understand that today the status-quo suits everybody, but it will end sooner or later. Till 1988 Nagornyy Karabakh was like an autonomy within Azerbaijan, that is to
say, it was also status-quo, which suited nobody than. And that status-quo broke in 70 years of existence.

One should look for other alternatives. As Armenians do not admit the talks about autonomy, and the talks about independence of Karabakh are inadmissible for Azerbaijanis, other options for settlement should be drawn out, based on the economic development of both states. Today citizens of Armenia and Azerbaijan simply resolve this problem leaving for Russia to try to earn a fast buck. Only in case of searching and fulfilling of joint economic projects without mutual demands about recognition of territorial integrity and independence, we shall be
able to come to the mutually acceptable option of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict settlement in future.